Photo by Dan Meyers via Unsplash

Converting and degrading freshwater ecosystems undermines their ability to deliver critical services to people and nature. Effectively halting this destruction is crucial to prevent continued biodiversity loss, preserve climate mitigation benefits and support sustainable development for communities around the world.

Freshwater ecosystems are being rapidly lost, driven by land-use change

Across the world’s blue water and green water freshwater ecosystems, human-driven degradation and conversion is resulting in enormous loss of freshwater ecosystems: an estimated 30% have disappeared since 1970. Land-use change has been the leading driver contributing to these losses. For instance, between 2000 and 2020, the primary drivers of mangrove loss were shrimp, palm oil and rice cultivation, making up 43% of total destruction.

Similarly, conversion to industrial plantations, logging and associated agricultural practices are leading contributors to tropical peatland degradation; agriculture and urbanization also drive the majority of degradation in river and lake ecosystems. And deforestation caused by increasing agriculture, industry and urban development is directly driving a reduction in green water flows and downwind precipitation.
 

Ecosystem loss is bringing devastating consequences for climate and biodiversity

These conversion and degradation patterns are resulting in the disruption or loss of the critical ecosystem services that the world’s freshwater ecosystems provide. These services include water filtration; flood protection; drought buffering; nutrient cycling; provision of food and energy; cultural, spiritual and recreational benefits; and carbon storage and local climate regulation. Together, they provide an estimated $39 trillion in value each year — just one measure underscoring their central role in supporting both planetary health and human well-being.

The degradation and loss of freshwater ecosystem services is especially concerning from a climate mitigation perspective. An estimated 20-25% of the world’s soil carbon is stored in wetlands, and some freshwater ecosystems — specifically mangrove forests, peatlands and salt marshes — are among the most carbon-dense globally. Mangroves and peatlands hold at least three times as much carbon per hectare as boreal, temperate and tropical forests, and protecting and restoring these coastal wetlands also considerably enhances carbon storage in ocean sediments.

Converting and degrading freshwater ecosystems, in contrast, releases carbon stored over centuries to millennia back into the atmosphere as well as inhibits these ecosystems’ capacity to take up and store additional carbon dioxide. Disturbance of green water flows that infiltrate soil and are used by plants can also reduce regional cooling effects, as this vegetation helps naturally cool surrounding areas by releasing water vapor back to the atmosphere.

Additionally, approximately 85% of globally assessed freshwater species diversity has been lost since 1970 — twice the rate of terrestrial and marine biodiversity decline — and nearly one-quarter of remaining freshwater species assessed are now threatened with extinction. Conversion of freshwater ecosystems is the primary threat, not only reducing habitat extent but also fragmenting and degrading remaining freshwater habitats. As the total abundance and richness of freshwater species shrinks, recovery becomes increasingly difficult, if not impossible, as species face a debilitating recovery debt.
 

Protecting freshwater ecosystems is critical, but efforts to date have stalled

Addressing the world’s climate and biodiversity crises while safeguarding and enhancing access to water for essential services will largely depend on halting the degradation and conversion of freshwater ecosystems. However, collective progress to effectively protect freshwater ecosystems remains inadequate; all indicators that have sufficient data to assess progress are heading in the wrong direction.

Urgent, coordinated global action is needed to reverse these trends. Strong evidence suggests that certain conservation tools, such as protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, payments for ecosystem services, moratoria on ecosystem conversion, and strengthened collective land ownership and land rights for Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendant Peoples and local communities can effectively reduce rates of ecosystem conversion.

Creating and strengthening policies that facilitate and incentivize these efforts should also be a top priority. These policies must also be coupled with efforts to improve governance, as limited institutional capacity and insufficient resources often hinder the effectiveness of conservation efforts around the globe. At the same time, transformations across agriculture, industry and cities will be paramount to ensure that as demand for food, energy and water rises, these systems use freshwater resources as efficiently and sustainably as possible and do not contribute to further degradation of freshwater ecosystems.

Tracking progress on global outcomes

7381: Wetland loss, as measured by estimated average annual net change of natural wetland extent

Status: Insufficient Data
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Data was extracted directly from the Global Wetland Outlook Report 2025. The data source notes that the most recent wetland area estimates 2020 extent, as most of the published imagery source’s data was from no later than that year. Global estimates for wetland extent vary because definitions and mapping methods differ and because some wetland types (e.g., small wetlands and intermittently inundated wetlands) are systematically harder to map globally. We show a net average change over the 50 year period between 1970 and 2020, removing the three non-freshwater habitat categories (coral reefs, kelp forests, and seagrass) from our calculations.

Target Methodology:
  • Targets to limit warming to 1.5°C: 1.5 degrees C-compatible targets focused on reducing wetland loss are not available.
  • Targets to minimize biodiversity loss: Díaz et al. 2020 synthesized the available evidence and, based on their expert evaluation, mapped out a high-ambition road to recovery needed to deliver the vision of the Global Biodiversity Framework. Within this “road to recovery,” the authors called for no loss in area or integrity of critical ecosystems between 2020 and 2030, with safeguards that avoid substitution between ecosystems. We interpret this goal as no gross losses in critical ecosystems over this period and, though not specified, likely beyond it. Wetlands constitute “critical ecosystems,” following the definition outlined in a report that many authors of Díaz et al. 2020 presented to the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice under the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Progress Assessment Methodology:

Outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Accordingly, 10 years instead of 5 years was used to calculate the linear trendline where possible. Global data for wetland loss, however, is insufficient to assess progress.

“Wetlands” refers to land area saturated with water either permanently or seasonally. These distinct ecosystems support unique plant and animal species adapted to wet conditions and play a vital role in water purification, flood control, carbon dioxide sequestration and storage.

Despite the critical importance of these wetlands for climate mitigation and biodiversity, global wetland extent is declining over time. Although available data is cumulative, rather than annual, and thus insufficient to assess year-on-year progress, an estimated 411 million hectares (Mha) of total natural wetland area was lost between 1970 and 2020, — an area nearly the size of India — mainly due to conversion to agriculture. This equates to an average annual loss of 8 Mha per year. Peatlands, inland marshes and swamps, and lakes were among the freshwater ecosystems with the highest average rates of loss across the period.

Collectively, these losses pose an urgent challenge: In fact, analysis suggests that to minimize continued biodiversity loss, no further gross losses in these critical ecosystems can occur. Yet without a step-change in action, these trends are predicted to worsen. There is also evidence to suggest that as wetland ecosystem degradation and conversion occurs, degradation of riparian zones — the areas directly adjacent to wetlands that also provide critical ecosystem services and biodiversity benefits — will grow as well.

7400: Peatland degradation, as measured by the annual rate of gross drained organic soils

Status: Insufficient Data
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

We relied on data on the annual change in the area of histosols drained for agriculture from Conchedda and Tubiello 2020 as a helpful, albeit limited proxy for peatland degradation. We calculated the total increase in the area of histosols drained for agriculture over the study time period (1993–2018) and divided the total increase in area by the number of years to determine the average annual rate of drainage.

While the area of histosols drained for agriculture represents a proxy for peatland degradation, this data may underestimate peatland degradation for several reasons. First, the data focuses on drainage of histosols solely for agricultural activities, and although agriculture is primarily responsible for peatland degradation globally, other direct drivers — such as road and infrastructure development, forestry, oil sands mining and peat extraction — are not included in the estimates. Moreover, the threshold of peat depth used to define peatland varies by country, and some countries have yet to establish a nationally recognized definition of peatlands. In nations where this threshold is numerically lower than the depth of organic material used to define organic soil in Conchedda and Tubiello 2020, peatland degradation may not be included in these estimates of drained organic soils. As a result, the global extent of histosols is significantly lower than most recent estimates for peatland area, and estimates of the area of histosols drained for agricultural activities (25 Mha) are substantially lower than estimates of the global area of degraded peatlands (57 Mha).

Target Methodology:
  • Targets to limit warming to 1.5°C: We did not use the avoided peatland degradation area estimate associated with Roe et al. 2021’s bottom-up, cost-effective mitigation potential, because it is not defined relative to a historical baseline. Rather, it is the difference in peatland degradation in 2035 between two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (SSP2-RCP2.6) scenarios modeled by Humpenöder et al. 2020, using a model called MAgPIE that combines biophysical and economic approaches to simulate spatially explicit global land-use scenarios. Instead, we followed Roe et al. 2019’s land sector roadmap for 2050, which identified the reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from peatland degradation needed to help achieve the sector’s target of mitigating 14 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (GtCO2e/yr) in 2050. Roe et al. 2019 derived this GHG emissions reduction estimate from Griscom et al. 2017’s “maximum additional” mitigation potential for peatland degradation, which was estimated by assuming that recent rates of peatland degradation fall to 0 by 2030 and that no additional degradation occurs between 2030 and 2050. Finally, because the mitigation potential for this activity is higher in Roe et al. 2019 (0.75 GtCO2 e/yr in 2050) than in Roe et al. 2021 (0.21 GtCO2e/yr from 2020 to 2050) we assumed that these targets are still in line with 1.5 degree C pathways. Critically, neither estimate of mitigation potential includes avoided emissions from peat fires.
  • Targets to minimize biodiversity loss: By calling for a complete halt in peatland degradation by 2030, the 1.5 degrees C-aligned targets already reflect the highest possible ambition by the end of this decade and, therefore, what’s needed to minimize freshwater biodiversity losses.
Progress Assessment Methodology:

Outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Accordingly, 10 years instead of 5 years was used to calculate the linear trendline where possible. Global data for peatland degradation, however, is insufficient to assess progress.

Peatlands are global hotspots for carbon sequestration and long-term storage, covering just 3.8% of the planet’s land but containing over 610 gigatons of carbon (GtC) — more than the total amount of carbon emitted from fossil fuel combustion since preindustrial times. These ecosystems also hold large stores of organic nitrogen, as their waterlogged soils slow decomposition and allow carbon- and nitrogen-rich peat to accumulate over millennia.

But when peatlands lose water (for example, when they are drained for agriculture), oxygen can enter the upper layers of the soil, spurring decomposition and leading to losses of stored carbon and nitrogen. These degraded peatlands then emit carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide for decades or even centuries, until all peat is lost or their soils are rewetted. Draining peatlands also increases the risk of peat fires, which can lead to additional and substantial greenhouse gas emissions.

Degradation also impedes peatlands’ ability to sustain other vital ecosystem services like filtering out pollutants from water, absorbing floodwaters and regulating nutrient cycling. Additionally, peatlands are home to endemic species, as well as threatened or critically endangered megafauna like orangutans, bonobos, Western Lowland gorillas, crocodiles and many types of fish. These wetlands also provide habitat to a host of other animals that use them intermittently, like migrating birds.

Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) and conserving biodiversity will require the annual rate of peatland degradation globally to fall to zero as soon as possible and by 2030 at the latest, with no additional degradation from 2030 to 2050.

Despite recent advances in mapping peatlands, efforts to monitor degradation lag behind and data is still insufficient to track progress made toward this target. Global estimates of the area of organic soils drained for agriculture offer a helpful, though still limited proxy and show that an average 0.06 Mha of organic soils were drained each year for crop cultivation and grazing between 1993 and 2018. In total, 57 Mha of peatlands — an area roughly the size of Kenya — are currently degrading, such that they are no longer forming peat, and carbon-rich peat accumulated over centuries to millennia is disappearing.

7408: Mangrove conversion, as measured by the annual rate of gross losses in mangrove extent

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

To monitor mangrove loss globally, we used a dataset on tidal wetland change from Murray et al. 2022 that estimates gross area of loss of mangroves from 1999 to 2019. Mangrove loss is defined as the replacement of mangroves with non-intertidal ecosystems at the 30-meter pixel scale, which includes both natural and human-caused losses. Using this definition, the dataset estimated mangrove loss in three-year epochs. To convert these three-year epochs into annual rates of change, we divided the gross loss for each epoch by three to determine the average annual loss rate in hectares per year. There are several limitations in using this data to assess progress toward our targets for reducing mangrove loss. Because loss area is estimated for three-year epochs, fewer data points are available from which to derive the historical trendline, and the trendline for this indicator was derived from the area of mangrove loss across four epochs. Furthermore, this dataset may also underestimate changes that occur at smaller scales (e.g., fragmentation) or in narrow linear features such as waterways due to the limitations of detecting such changes with medium-resolution satellite imagery. A detailed assessment of the accuracy of this data can be found in Murray et al. 2022. Finally, Global Mangrove Watch’s 3.0 dataset, another commonly used dataset on mangrove extent and change, features estimates of mangrove extent from 1996 to 2020. However, Bunting et al. 2022 recommended using only their net change estimates, rather than gross loss or gain, due to misregistration errors with the JAXA L-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, which can lead to overestimation of individual loss and gain in some areas. JAXA is currently reprocessing all L-band SAR global mosaics, which will likely resolve this limitation in future versions of the Global Mangrove Watch data.

Target Methodology:
  • Targets to limit warming to 1.5°C: Roe et al. 2021 define the bottom-up, cost-effective mitigation potential for avoided GHG emissions from mangrove loss (0.07 GtCO2e/yr from 2020 to 2050) as 90% adoption of the technical potential from Griscom et al. 2020, expanded to include nontropical countries. This technical potential was defined as avoiding all potential mangrove loss and estimated using average annual gross mangrove loss rates from 1996 to 2016. We therefore calculated a 90% reduction in this rate to derive our 1.5 degrees C-aligned targets and following ramp-down assumptions from Griscom et al. 2020, we set our 1.5 degrees C-aligned target to achieve this reduction by 2030, with no further increase in the rate of loss between 2030 and 2050.
  • Targets to minimize biodiversity loss: We derived this target from the technical potential as estimated by Roe et al. 2021, which entails entirely halting historical rates of loss. This is consistent with Díaz et al. 2020, who synthesize the available evidence and, based on their expert evaluation, map out a high-ambition road to recovery needed to deliver the vision of the Global Biodiversity Framework. Within this “road to recovery,” Díaz et al. 2020 call for no loss in area or integrity of critical ecosystems between 2020 and 2030, with safeguards that avoid substitution between ecosystems. We interpret this goal as no gross losses in critical ecosystems over this period and, though not specified, likely beyond it. Mangroves constitute “critical ecosystems,” following the definition outlined in a report that many authors of Díaz et al. 2020 presented to the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice under the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Progress Assessment Methodology:

Outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Accordingly, 10 years instead of 5 years was used to calculate the linear trendline where possible. For mangrove conversion, however, a 12-year trendline was calculated, using data from 2008 to 2019 to account for the full range of years included in four 3-year epochs.

Stretching across nearly 15 million hectares (Mha) of shoreline globally, mangroves are among the world’s most carbon-rich ecosystems, holding at least three times more carbon per hectare than the world’s forests. Accumulation of carbon within these coastal wetland soils occurs gradually over hundreds to thousands of years, as mangrove roots trap suspended organic matter during tidal flooding and biomass slowly decomposes in their waterlogged soils. Due to these ecosystems’ carbon density, the loss of even a small area of mangroves, particularly when their soils are dredged or excavated, can release a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions relative to other ecosystems.

Converting mangrove forests — for example, to aquaculture ponds, palm oil plantations, rice paddies or urban infrastructure — threatens not only their ability to continue sequestering and storing carbon but also their capacity to provide a wide range of ecosystem services to coastal communities across the globe. These wetlands are known for protecting shorelines from flooding, strong winds and extreme weather events such as hurricanes, and, under the right conditions, they can reduce erosion and increase accretion, such that they gain elevation to keep pace with sea level rise. Mangroves, though historically believed to have relatively low levels of species richness, also provide nursery grounds for fisheries, as well as habitats for many endemic and threatened species, and recent studies are beginning to challenge previous assumptions of low genetic and species diversity in these ecosystems.

Protecting mangroves is therefore critical to addressing both the climate and biodiversity crises. But the world’s shorelines have lost a total of 560,000 hectares (ha) since the turn of the century, and between 2008 to 2019, these losses increased at an average annual rate of almost 950 hectares per year (ha/yr). With these recent changes heading in the wrong direction entirely, a sharp reversal in action is needed to reduce these losses to no more than 4,900 ha/yr by 2030 to help limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) and to zero as soon as possible and by 2030 at the latest to help conserve biodiversity.

7409: Salt marsh conversion, as measured by the annual rate of gross losses in salt marsh extent

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

To calculate gross losses in salt marsh extent globally, we used Murray et al. 2022's dataset on tidal marsh change from 1999 to 2019. “Tidal marsh loss” is defined as the replacement of tidal marshes with non-intertidal ecosystems at the 30-meter pixel scale, which includes both natural and human-caused losses. Using this definition, the dataset estimated tidal marsh loss in three-year epochs. To convert these estimates to annual rates, we divided the gross loss for each epoch by three to determine the average annual loss rate in hectares per year. There are several limitations in using this data to assess progress made in reducing salt marsh loss. Because loss area is estimated for three-year epochs, fewer data points are available from which to derive the historical trendline, and the trendline for this indicator was derived from the area of tidal marsh loss across four epochs. Furthermore, this dataset may also underestimate changes that occur at smaller scales or in narrow linear features such as waterways due to the limitations of detecting such changes with medium-resolution satellite imagery. A detailed assessment of the accuracy of this data can be found in Murray et al. 2022.

Target Methodology:
  • Targets to limit warming to 1.5°C: 1.5 degrees C-compatible targets focused on reducing salt marsh loss are not available.
  • Targets to minimize biodiversity loss: Díaz et al. 2020 synthesized the available evidence and, based on their expert evaluation, mapped out a high-ambition road to recovery needed to deliver the vision of the Global Biodiversity Framework. Within this “road to recovery,” the authors called for no loss in area or integrity of critical ecosystems between 2020 and 2030, with safeguards that avoid substitution between ecosystems. We interpret this goal as no gross losses in critical ecosystems over this period and, though not specified, likely beyond it. Salt marshes constitute “critical ecosystems,” following the definition outlined in a report that many authors of Díaz et al. 2020 presented to the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice under the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Progress Assessment Methodology:

Outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Accordingly, 10 years instead of 5 years was used to calculate the linear trendline where possible. For salt marsh conversion, however, a 12-year trendline was calculated, using data from 2008 to 2019 to account for the full range of years included in four 3-year epochs from Murray et al. 2022.

While mangroves primarily grow along tropical shorelines, salt marshes tend to replace these coastal wetlands across temperate and boreal shores. Covering at least 9 million hectares (Mha) these highly productive coastal wetlands sequester and store substantial amounts of carbon per hectare, with roughly double the carbon density of the world’s forests. Accumulation of carbon in these ecosystems’ soils occurs gradually over hundreds to thousands of years, as marsh vegetation traps suspended organic matter during tidal flooding and their waterlogged soils slow decomposition. Due to their high carbon density, the loss of even a small area of salt marshes, particularly when their soils are dredged or excavated, can spur high greenhouse gas emissions relative to other ecosystems.

Historically, draining salt marshes for agriculture, industry and urban development — alongside other drivers of loss including sea level rise, increasingly limited sediment due to damming rivers, pollution and the spread of invasive, alien species — have threatened their capacity to provide life-sustaining ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and storage. Like mangroves, these wetlands protect coastal communities from flooding, strong winds and extreme weather events like hurricanes. Under the right conditions, they can also reduce erosion and increase accretion, meaning they gain elevation to keep pace with sea level rise. And while the relatively harsh environmental conditions of intertidal habitats like salt marshes make it difficult for many species to thrive, these ecosystems still provide refuge for endemic species and migratory birds, as well as nursery grounds for fisheries.

Salt marsh losses over past centuries are estimated to be quite large, and protecting these ecosystems from further disturbances will prove critical to combatting both the climate and biodiversity crises. Since the turn of the century, the world has lost a total of 106,000 hectares of salt marshes, and between 2008 and 2019 the rate of gross losses has ticked slightly upward. Recent rates of change are heading in the wrong direction entirely, and a step-change in action is needed to end salt marsh loss immediately to help mitigate climate change and conserve biodiversity.

7388: River and lake area change, as measured by net percent change in lake and river surface area extent

Status: Insufficient Data
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

We do not include global results for this indicator because aggregated values combine gains and losses across many water bodies, which can be difficult to interpret and can hide important patterns if scaled globally. For example, large positive changes in one region could cancel out many smaller negative changes elsewhere, producing an aggregated result that does not meaningfully represent variation that is happening at the subnational level or in any specific place. While the global or national value can be mathematically correct, it may have limited value for decision-making because it can obscure substantial local changes and does not indicate where local gains and losses occurred. 

The methodology underpinning this data uses 2000-2004 as the five-year baseline period and compares all subsequent five-year periods against that baseline to calculate percentage changes in the extent of permanent and seasonal surface water over time. For each five-year period, the water state category (permanent, seasonal or no water) is decided by a majority rule, and the water transitions between the baseline and the target period are subsequently used to compute the percentage change in the spatial area of permanent and seasonal waters over time. Another notable limitation is that this metric does not represent year-to-year water area changes in individual lake or river areas but rather changes in water state categories relative to a baseline based on pixel classification capturing the presence (or absence) of water. This sometimes results in a few unusual, extreme percentage cases, such as for the Faroe Islands, where very few pixels were classified as “permanent” or “seasonal” water pixels in the baseline period, but many more were classified this way in subsequent periods because the pixel categories changed. Certain terrains are hard to track due to cloud cover or shadows and can destabilize satellite-based classification as well. The data includes land areas that are temporarily inundated such as wetlands and paddy fields. Smaller rivers and waterbodies are not captured as they are too narrow to detect or are masked by forest canopy.

Target Methodology:

River and lake area degradation is particularly relevant for minimizing biodiversity loss. While Díaz et al. 2020 called for no loss in area or integrity of critical ecosystems between 2020 and 2030, only river and lake ecosystems that are “rare,” “vulnerable” or “so important for planetary function that any further decline in their area or integrity will lead to either a collapse/extinction of the ecosystem or the function that it provides” constitute “critical ecosystems,” following the definition outlined in a report that many authors of Díaz et al. 2020 presented to the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice under the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Accordingly, while we know that some rivers and lakes meet these criteria, we do not present a quantitative target for all river and lake area loss extent. Instead, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that river and lake degradation must decline — as informed by IPBES 2019 and IPCC 2022.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

Outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Accordingly, 10 years instead of 5 years was used to calculate the linear trendline where possible.

Around the world, many seasonal and permanent rivers and lakes are facing increasing pressures driven by land conversion for agriculture, dam construction, sand mining and overabstraction of water resources. These pressures have led to large-scale declines in total river and lake area in some regions, such as the Middle East, harming ecosystems and threatening species that inhabit them.

Climate change is also placing immense pressure on freshwater rivers and lakes. For instance, scientists estimate that lakes are warming significantly faster than the ocean or atmosphere, contributing to harmful algal blooms, which reduce oxygen levels and can cause large-scale die-offs of freshwater species.

Perhaps counterintuitively, while river and lake surface area is declining in some regions, climate change is also contributing to increases in extent in other regions. For instance, more frequent and intense rainfall can increase surface water area, while melting glaciers and snowpack can also enlarge such water bodies. Increases in area thus do not necessarily indicate healthier ecosystems; in many cases, they instead reflect hydrological disruption and ecological degradation.

River and lake area changes can be monitored with a proxy indicator established by the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that measures changes in the extent of water-related ecosystems over time. As countries report the water area of freshwater ecosystems like rivers and lakes under SDG reporting requirements, the world can monitor how the total area of these bodies is changing over time, and the extent to which change is occurring.

As compared to a 2000-2004 baseline, the world is on average experiencing net increases in both permanent and seasonal lake and river surface area extent. In 2022 — the most recent year of data available — seasonal water body area was 38% higher than during the 2000-2004 baseline, while permanent water body area had also increased 4% from prior levels.

While explicit quantitative targets for minimizing these anomalies that are aligned with key climate and biodiversity goals are not available, the Freshwater Challenge — signed onto by more than 50 countries — articulates a broad goal to protect river and lake ecosystems, which can be achieved by minimizing degradation of both seasonal and permanent surface water bodies.

These lakes and the rivers that feed into them provide 90% of the world’s surface freshwater, support the lives and livelihoods of an estimated 60 million people via the drinking water, transportation, energy, cooling, food and recreation services that they provide, and are home to high levels of species diversity, making their protection critical.

7402: Rivers that remain entirely free-flowing

Status: Insufficient Data
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Free-flowing river data was extracted from Table 1, “Number and length of the world’s free-flowing rivers (FFRs) and non-free-flowing rivers (NFFRs),” from Grill et al. 2019. The total global value was calculated by dividing the total number of FFRs by the total number of rivers (free-flowing and non-free-flowing) and then multiplying by 100. Notably, some fragmentation by small dams, weirs and culverts is understood to be underdocumented in the literature. River length is defined as follows:

  • Short rivers are 10-100 kilometers
  • Medium rivers are 100-500 kilometers
  • Long rivers are 500-1,000 kilometers
  • Very long rivers are >1,000 kilometers
Target Methodology:

1.5 degrees C-compatible targets for the proportion of rivers that remain entirely free-flowing are not available. Similarly, there is no scientific consensus on what constitutes a sufficiently ambitious target for freshwater biodiversity conservation, and the literature generally lacks quantitative and time-bound targets for this indicator. Accordingly, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that the proportion of rivers that remain entirely free-flowing must increase — as informed by IPBES 2019 and IPCC 2022.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

Outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Accordingly, 10 years instead of 5 years was used to calculate the linear trendline where possible. Global data for rivers that remain entirely free-flowing, however, is insufficient to assess progress.

Rivers around the world face pressures from a range of human activities, such as watershed disturbance, pollution, water resource development (including dams and flow regulation) and the introduction of nonnative species. While some rivers remain relatively free-flowing, others have been dammed or altered for various purposes, including hydroelectric power generation, irrigation, flood control and navigation.

Dams, levees and weirs provide important societal benefits, including through hydropower — a source of clean, firm power — and enabling water storage, diversion and regulation for agricultural, industrial and domestic use. However, disrupting river connectivity can also lead to many adverse social and environmental impacts. For example, dams can impede the migration of aquatic species by creating physical barriers and altering the hydrological cues on which they depend, often leading to less diverse communities of fish and invertebrates. The trapping of sediment by dams also impacts downstream ecosystems such as deltas and wetlands, leading to coastal erosion, enhanced subjugation to effects of sea level rise, and the degradation of estuarine habitats, which often serve as critical fish nurseries. Reservoirs created by dams also emit greenhouse gases from decomposing organic material, contributing over 5% of global anthropogenic methane emissions in 2020.

Maintaining river connectivity is thus essential for protecting freshwater biodiversity and ecosystems, and can also play a critical role in global emissions reductions efforts. But although 96% of the world’s rivers remained free-flowing over their entire length as of 2019 — the most recent year of data available — this share falls dramatically when looking at the 246 rivers longer than 1,000 kilometers (621 miles). Only 37% of those rivers still maintain a direct connection from source to sea. The rest of the remaining free-flowing rivers are mostly found in remote regions such as the Arctic, the Amazon Basin and the Congo Basin — ecosystems at high risk of future degradation.

While structural flood control measures such as levees and channelization may reduce flooding locally in the short term, in some cases they can also increase downstream flood risks or lead to more severe impacts when infrastructure fails, particularly under changing precipitation patterns associated with climate change. As a result, decisions regarding the construction, maintenance or removal of interventions that alter natural flow regimes and fragment rivers require careful consideration of trade-offs among energy production, water management needs, ecosystem health and long-term social and environmental risks.

7395: Green water cycle integrity, as measured by land area experiencing deviations in soil moisture relative to a preindustrial baseline

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The dataset presented here extends only to 2005. While current conditions have changed since this data was compiled, the trend spans a 145-year industrial period (1861-2005) and remains the most comprehensive available global dataset measuring soil moisture anomaly over time. 

Target Methodology:

1.5 degrees C-compatible targets for green water degradation are not available. Similarly, there is no scientific consensus on what constitutes a sufficiently ambitious target for freshwater biodiversity conservation, and the literature generally lacks quantitative and time-bound targets for this indicator. Accordingly, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that green water degradation must decline — as informed by IPBES 2019 and IPCC 2022.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

We used 10 years of data to calculate the linear trendline. Historical variability for this indicator has been small, but we expect future values may exhibit greater natural interannual variability because of both anthropogenic and natural causes, as observed in other indicators in this system.

The rain that falls over land and is absorbed by vegetation — referred to as green water — is the largest source of freshwater on Earth, underpinning global production of food, feed, fiber, timber and bioenergy. The green water cycle also plays a vital role in supporting terrestrial biodiversity, regulating regional and global climate and sustaining ecosystem productivity. 

However, the global green water cycle has been subjected to increasing anthropogenic pressures, particularly as soil is degraded via land use changes and the changing climate alters rainfall patterns. These pressures are fundamentally altering where — and how much — green water flows through ecosystems.

While there is no single agreed-upon way to assess the integrity of the green water cycle, one recent study suggests that measuring changes in global soil moisture — the soil water available to plants — can help to elucidate how green water patterns are evolving over time. While assessing the complete green water cycle would include monitoring precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture trends, focusing on just one component of the cycle for which data can be readily collected provides insight into the integrity of the cycle at-large.

It is clear that real change in global soil moisture trends have taken hold since the Industrial Revolution: Between 1996 and 2005, an annual average of 16% of global land area experienced a significant deviation in soil moisture as compared to a baseline prior to 1860. These deviations are not only occurring in one direction. While some regions — particularly those in the tropics and subtropics — are primarily experiencing drying trends, temperate and subpolar regions are more commonly seeing increases in soil moisture.

While no global study has yet been published to capture more recent deviations from pre-Industrial Revolution levels of soil moisture,  a plethora of recent evidence indicates that global soil moisture trends have, on average, declined since 2005. Future research to compare these declining trends to a preindustrial baseline could better demonstrate anthropogenic impacts on the global green water cycle.

Key enablers and barriers to change

7406: Water use efficiency

As the world’s population grows, incomes rise and consumption patterns intensify (particularly in wealthier economies), demand for the goods and services that freshwater provides is growing swiftly: By one estimate, water withdrawals around the world have increased almost twice as fast as global population growth. Given the limitations of the world’s sustainable freshwater supply, as well as clear evidence of ecosystem degradation spawned by overwithdrawals, enhancing the efficiency of how we use water for agriculture, industry and other services is vital.

Improving efficiency reduces the amount of surface and groundwater that needs to be withdrawn for human activities, leaving more water available for aquatic ecosystems, reducing habitat disruption, improving water quality in downstream ecosystems and preventing further degradation such as waterlogging and salinization that affects environmental health and people’s well-being. Enhancing efficiency also offers multiple co-benefits, such as reducing emissions from water pumping and distribution, improving soil health and boosting resilience to drought and other climate impacts. It also leads to higher crop yields, better food security and increased economic productivity within the agricultural industry.

It is thus promising that, over the last two decades, the world has seen an increase in water use efficiency, measured by monetary value added per volume of water withdrawn. Recent data shows that global water use efficiency increased from $13 per cubic meter in 2000 to $21 per cubic meter in 2021. Yet, as there are wide differences in water use efficiency around the world (see map view), interventions to enhance efficiency in particularly water-stressed regions, including the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, should be prioritized.

There is no-one-size-fits-all approach to achieving such gains around the world, but there is evidence that agricultural interventions — including investments in water-efficient irrigation systems and application of mulching and cover crops, water reuse and reclamation in industrial processes, and water pricing mechanisms that incentivize efficient household consumption — can yield tangible improvements.

7407: Irrigated agriculture water use efficiency

As irrigated agriculture accounts for 69% of freshwater withdrawals, improving water use efficiency in irrigated agriculture (crops, livestock and other uses) is particularly essential to reducing pressures for greater water withdrawals and minimizing ecosystem degradation.

Irrigated water use efficiency (IWUE) in agriculture is measured by value added in U.S. dollars per volume of water used in cubic meters across irrigated agricultural land. IWUE has shown continuous growth, more than tripling between 2000 and 2022. More recently, it increased by 25% between 2018 and 2022.

Existing data, though insufficient to make robust comparisons, indicates variations in IWUE across regions and countries, reflecting differences in irrigation practices, crop types and water management strategies. However, these differences do not show clear regional patterns. For instance, in 2023 the Netherlands had the highest IWUE at 35, while New Zealand at 4.4, Sierra Leone at 3.4, Germany at 2.4, Saudi Arabia at 0.99 and India at 0.65.

To further increase efficiency, efforts should include promoting sustainable agricultural practices, including water-efficient irrigation systems, developing more drought-resistant crops and implementing policies and incentives for water conservation in agriculture. Equitable and effective water governance structures are also necessary for implementing and sustaining efficient water use practices, ensuring fair allocation of water resources and promoting stakeholder participation in water management decisions.

7393: Hydropower dams planned or under construction on large rivers

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Systems Change Lab relied on two global datasets to produce this analysis. Dam locations and attributes come from Global Dam Tracker (GDAT) v1 and river geometry and flow-related numbers come from HydroRIVERS v1.0, a world river map built from HydroSHEDS. Large rivers were defined as river segments with an average discharge of at least 1,000 cubic m³/s. Because the GDAT and HydroRIVERS datasets are not directly linked, dam locations were matched to the nearest large-river segment within approximately five kilometers. As a result, river assignments are approximate. For this indicator, we track dams specifically for hydropower generation completed on large rivers between 2000 and the present. Dams without a recorded completion year were excluded from the analysis.

Existing hydropower dams deliver clean, firm renewable power to many countries around the world; they can also provide important benefits for storage, diversion and regulation of water for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses and short-term flood control.

At the same time, existing dams, as well as the construction of new dams and resultant disruptions to river connectivity, can lead to devastating impacts for freshwater ecosystems, as well as the local communities that depend on them. For example, dams block fish migrations and trap sediments, which can lead to coastal erosion, degradation of estuarine habitats and harm to accretion processes necessary to keep pace with sea level rise. They can also reduce water quality by driving more frequent harmful algal blooms, and threaten lives, homes and property with increased flood risk.

Most recent data in 2026 shows that, around the world, 78 new hydropower dams are planned or under construction on rivers exceeding 1,000 cubic meters per second (m3/s) of discharge. This number has steadily increased over time, demonstrating that hydropower dams continue to be planned and constructed on the world’s large rivers.

The planning and construction of dams require careful consideration of trade-offs among energy production, water management needs, ecosystem health and long-term social and environmental risks. In practice, ecosystem health and environmental risks have often received less weight in these decisions than energy production goals.

Recognizing this imbalance, a growing body of research and advocacy emphasizes the importance of limiting new hydropower development on the world’s remaining large, free-flowing rivers due to their disproportionate importance for biodiversity, sediment transport and ecosystem functioning. Instead, optimizing the performance and efficiency of existing hydropower infrastructure — including through modernization, improved operations and the addition of generating capacity at existing dams — can meaningfully increase electricity production. Prioritizing these approaches before constructing new dams can therefore help countries maximize clean energy gains from hydropower while minimizing additional impacts on river ecosystems.

Many of the world’s largest rivers also cross national boundaries, meaning that decisions to alter flows or connectivity in one location can generate adverse and unintended consequences elsewhere in the basin. Accordingly, while countries retain the authority to determine the optimal balance between energy production and ecosystem protection within their own borders, protecting large, ecologically significant, free-flowing rivers requires transboundary cooperation.

7385: Inland waters in protected areas or other effective area-based conservation measures

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The data presented is the sum of protected areas and OECMs.

Protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) are the foundation of efforts to prevent biodiversity loss. Under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted in 2022, nearly 200 countries pledged to effectively conserve 30% of the world’s ecosystems by 2030 through these area-based conservation measures.

Of all measured inland waters, including wetlands, rivers, streams and lakes, intermittent stream ecosystems were protected at the highest percentage — 32% — with intermediate rivers (18%), small streams (17%) and wetlands (16%) following next.

Although a complete analysis of all freshwater ecosystems within protected areas or OECMs as of 2025 is not yet available, over 2,500 Ramsar sites — wetlands designated to be of international importance and earmarked for protection — were registered by that year, covering almost 260 million hectares (Mha) of the approximately 1,200-1,600 Mha of wetlands around the world. Similarly, more than 3,700 freshwater ecosystems around the world have been designated as Key Biodiversity Areas, indicating that countries have earmarked them for elevated protection.

While the rates of ecosystem conversion are generally lower within protected areas than outside of them, simply establishing a protected area does not eliminate habitat loss. Instead, the efficacy of protected areas and OECMs varies significantly depending on a range of factors, including size, age, proximity to cities, baseline degradation rates, existing human pressures on nearby ecosystems, governance and the degree of human activities allowed within their borders.

The extent to which an entire ecosystem is protected can also impact overall effectiveness; for instance, if only a small part of a river that is home to a fish spawning area is protected, degradation elsewhere in that river may still negatively impact the protected area. Conversely, protected areas may be particularly impactful for small wetlands — often home to disproportionate freshwater biodiversity — even when the full ecosystem can be protected.

Unfortunately, protected areas often neglect the specific needs of freshwater ecosystems. For example, while connectivity is particularly critical for these ecosystems, it is often overlooked. Case studies highlight the importance of both lateral (e.g., river-riparian and floodplain zones) and vertical (e.g., surface-groundwater) connectivity for species survival, but insufficient monitoring efforts prevent a full assessment of the effectiveness of conservation efforts. Freshwater ecosystem conservation also tends to receive fewer resources than conservation of other ecosystems.

In addition, local factors such as the quality of monitoring systems, access to finance and poor law enforcement can also impact protected areas’ effectiveness. Expanding freshwater-based protected areas will therefore need to be coupled with improved management, planning and monitoring and increased institutional capacity and enforcement. Completing a management effectiveness assessment is essential for understanding if a protected area or OECM is meeting its goals in protecting biodiversity.

7396: Countries with laws or regulations restricting agricultural or aquaculture expansion into freshwater ecosystems

As the global population grows and overconsumption in developed economies intensifies, wetlands lost due to conversion to other land uses are expected to continue or worsen. Accordingly, establishing and strengthening laws, policies and regulations that prohibit the expansion of agriculture, aquaculture or timber plantations into these at-risk freshwater ecosystems is critical for safeguarding freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem services.

While no global dataset exists to track progress on the creation of such policies, passing legislation that restricts agricultural expansion into freshwater ecosystems is an important lever for change. For example, China’s 2021 Wetland Protection Law prohibits the conversion of mangrove forests and the draining of peatlands. Notably, the law also imposes high fines for illegal wetland conversion. Other countries have put in place regulations that do not explicitly prohibit conversion, but do still incentivize the protection of freshwater ecosystems. At the same time, some countries are actively removing regulations, undermining protection of critical freshwater ecosystems like peatlands, mangroves, salt marshes, rivers and streams.

These policies are only as effective as their level of enforcement. Insufficient resources, weak institutional capacity and corruption often impede conservation efforts, even in countries that have established strong conservation policies on paper. For example, Brazil’s Forest Code prohibits farmers from clearing riparian buffer zones, mangrove forests and peatlands; however, enforcement of the Forest Code has historically been uneven, allowing for high levels of illegal degradation and conversion.

Similarly, although freshwater security is a prerequisite for food security, if pursued in isolation, laws of this nature could harm farmers’ livelihoods, particularly for smallholders who may have few alternative land or water sources available. Governments should consider adopting complementary policies that support farmers, as well as support the adoption of sustainable aquaculture technologies and practices. This will also require increasing investments in the research and development of climate-smart, sustainable agriculture, given that many countries currently lack commercially available technologies and practices that can effectively increase yields, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimize environmental harms.

7397: Countries with policies promoting the retention of riparian buffer zones

Vegetated areas adjacent to water bodies, known as riparian buffer zones, maintain ecological integrity and provide ecosystem services. These zones significantly reduce soil erosion and concentration of other pollutants like nitrogen by trapping eroded soil particles, thereby reducing sedimentation in water bodies and contributing to climate change mitigation by sequestering carbon.

The vegetation in riparian zones regulates microclimates, mitigates temperature extremes in both air and water and provides habitats for wildlife, enhancing rich species diversity and ecosystem resilience against climate change. Additionally, healthy riparian zones support agricultural activities by regulating water flow, filtering pollutants, maintaining water quality, enhancing soil fertility, reducing runoff and providing habitats for pollinators essential for agriculture.

Policies promoting riparian buffer zones play an important role in safeguarding water quality, habitats and overall ecosystem health. But, given that no globally comprehensive dataset measures the number of countries that have enacted such policies, more data is needed to assess the extent to which these policies are being implemented in different countries over time.

Critically, even in the countries with regulations for protecting riparian zones, implementation is limited. Key challenges in implementing riparian management include vague policy objectives that lack measurable targets, making effectiveness hard to assess; inconsistent guidelines across regions; socioeconomic pressures in developing countries, where community needs often conflict with conservation goals; a lack of integration in environmental and land-use programs, leading to fragmented protection efforts; and inadequate protections for riparian zones.

7399: Countries and territories with national policies mandating sustainable sand or mineral extraction from freshwater ecosystems

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Data was collected from the legislation database of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Legal Office (FAOLEX) using the following filters: Domain: Environment, Wild species & ecosystems, and Water; Type of text: Policies, Legislation; Keywords: “sustainable use,” “access right,” “sustainable river gravel sand extraction.” We excluded legislation and policies that are labeled as “repealed.” However, vetting the relevance and quality of each data result required significant manual review beyond the scope of this reporting period. As a result, this indicator is classified as insufficient data at this time.

Sand is one of the world’s most consumed natural resources, with global consumption for construction, electronics, water filtration and other uses growing annually. A 2019 study by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) found that global demand for sand has tripled since 2000, with some studies estimating more than 40 billion metric tons of sand used per year.

However, direct or indirect removal of sand, aggregate and minerals can have negative impacts on freshwater ecosystems, including habitat degradation and loss, shifts in local and downstream flow patterns of water and sediment, changes to the physiochemical characteristics of the water column and disruption to ecological processes such as increased turbidity.

National laws and regulations should outline strategies to minimize the local and wider environmental impacts of sand and other aggregate extraction and prioritize rehabilitation where mitigation is not possible. Only a subset of countries and territories have adopted a policy promoting sustainable sand or mineral mining activities in freshwater ecosystems. Such policies should be adopted more widely worldwide and, at the same time, need to be accompanied by robust enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance.

7382: Countries with measures promoting, guiding or requiring agricultural practices and landscape configurations aimed at minimizing soil degradation

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Currently there is no comprehensive data available for this indicator. The FAOLEX Database provided by FAOSTAT offers a policy database that can be filtered to explore policies focusing on soil degradation and conservation; more research is needed to compare these policies with a consistent methodology.

Soil health underpins the regulation of green water flows, or the water that infiltrates soil and is taken up by plants. Healthy soils act as a natural reservoir, enhancing infiltration, water retention and slow release to vegetation. When soils degrade through erosion, compaction, nutrient depletion or loss of organic matter, their capacity to absorb and retain green water declines, increasing surface runoff, reducing plant-available water and intensifying vulnerability to droughts and floods. Accordingly, soil degradation poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity, food security and more.

Soil degradation and climate change are closely connected, creating a vicious cycle: Degraded soils lose their ability to store carbon and support vegetation, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change. At the same time, climate change contributes to and exacerbates soil degradation through changes in temperature, precipitation patterns and extreme weather events such as droughts and floods.

Measures that promote, guide or require agricultural practices aimed at minimizing soil degradation are necessary to maintain soil health, productivity and environmental sustainability, as well as safeguard broader green water flows. These measures encompass a range of sustainable land management practices, including conservation tillage, crop rotation and cover cropping, contour farming and terracing, integrated nutrient management, agroforestry and windbreaks, and sustainable irrigation techniques.

By promoting these practices through comprehensive national policies, economic incentives, research and capacity-building, countries can combat the severe consequences of soil degradation. However, there is currently no comprehensive global dataset tracking national policies aimed at minimizing soil degradation.

7383: Countries with high and very high levels of implementation of national-level integrated water resources management policies and plans

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The UN Environment Programme calculated scores based on a 33-question survey organized around four main dimensions of IWRM and an average score from 0 to 100, in increments of 10, for each dimension. Countries that had “high” and “very high” levels of implementation were presented in the data above. In 2017, 173 countries were surveyed, then 186 in 2020 and 183 in 2023.

Complex freshwater governance structures where government agencies, Indigenous governments, community groups, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and private actors share overlapping authority can lead to coordination challenges when handling a shared problem. The transboundary nature of many freshwater ecosystems can also lead to competition and suboptimal management when transboundary cooperation plans are not in place.

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) promotes the cross-body coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources to maximize economic and social well-being without compromising ecosystem health. It focuses on conserving water-dependent ecosystems, preserving biodiversity, maintaining water quality and restoring degraded environments, while also addressing the water needs and impacts of agriculture through sustainable irrigation practices, efficient water use in crop production and mitigation of agricultural runoff. It also integrates climate change considerations into water management strategies, helping to adapt to changing precipitation patterns, extreme weather events and rising temperatures while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

IWRM implementation has resulted in significant and diverse benefits in multiple countries and regions. For example, in Denmark it has led to improved groundwater quality and enhanced drinking water protection. India has seen improvements in rural livelihoods and downstream water quality preservation. Bangladesh experienced poverty reduction alongside the restoration of vital wetland ecosystems. And Minzir, in northern Ethiopia, revived local water supplies in a previously barren landscape.

Globally, the share of countries with high or very high levels of implementation of national-level IWRM policies and plans grew from 19% in 2017 to 26% in 2023. While this is heading in the right direction, as of 2023, 136 countries still had not made sufficient progress with IWRM implementation, despite the global call for IWRM since 1992. The limited implementation of such policies hinders sustainable water management, leading to conflicts, resource inefficiency and ecosystem degradation.

7390: Countries legally recognizing community-based water tenure rights to access and use water

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The data for this indicator is sourced from Rights and Resources Initiative and the Environmental Law Institute’s “Whose Water?” report. This report uses a freshwater tenure methodology that captures the legal entitlements most essential for securing community-based freshwater tenure. Because the analysis is limited to the legal frameworks of 15 countries, we are currently unable to assess global progress.

Water tenure rights define how people can access, use, manage and make decisions about water resources. Secure and well-defined water rights are central to safeguarding access to water by Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendant Peoples and local communities and enabling them to manage resources sustainably and equitably.

By contrast, threats to communal waters held by Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendant Peoples and local communities can undermine water-based livelihoods and deepen water insecurity among already marginalized communities. Recognizing and establishing secure water rights for these communities is therefore critical to protecting their human and territorial rights and supporting sustainable, community-led resource management and resilient livelihoods.

Adapting from the Rights and Resources Initiative (RRI) land and forest tenure methodology, the RRI and the Environmental Law Institute developed a framework that defines community-based water tenure regimes as systems in which a local community has legally recognized rights to use and manage a freshwater resource or decide who is allowed to use it. Examples include the right to manage the rivers and lakes in their region, or to set up and control small-scale irrigation systems stemming from communal freshwater sources.

In their 2020 report “Whose Water?” these partners identified 39 community-based water tenure regimes in 15 countries, providing a baseline for tracking legal recognition of community freshwater rights. The report also evaluated these regimes based on their ability to support community survival, culture, livelihoods and development — particularly for Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendant Peoples and local communities.

While the report finds that rights to use and govern freshwater exist in 14 of the 15 countries assessed, significant legislative gaps and administrative barriers continue to limit communities’ ability to effectively manage and protect their freshwater resources. Data for more countries is also needed to more comprehensively assess global trends.

7403: Countries upholding the right to free, prior and informed consent for Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendant Peoples and local communities

In addition to protecting Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendant Peoples and local communities’ substantive rights to their land and freshwater resources, safeguarding their procedural rights — namely, the right to free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) — is equally critical.

FPIC is an internationally recognized human right afforded to Indigenous Peoples to give, withhold or withdraw their consent for any project that may impact them or their territories; this consent must arrive without intimidation or coercion through processes defined by the affected Indigenous Peoples. Although international law grants only Indigenous Peoples the right to FPIC, best practice calls for ensuring that any community holding and governing land and freshwater resources collectively is not unjustly deprived of their land or freshwater resources.

Safeguarding this right for Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendant Peoples and local communities can also enable these groups to better defend their land and freshwater resources from those seeking to convert them to croplands, pasturelands, mines and roads, among other uses, as well as ensure community leadership and support for conservation initiatives, such as the establishment of protected areas near Indigenous Peoples’ lands.

FPIC is explicitly enshrined within the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, as well as the International Labour Organization Convention 169 on Indigenous and Tribal Peoples. But while more than 150 countries have adopted the former, which is generally considered to be a “soft law” that is not legally binding, fewer than 25 nations have ratified the latter, which is legally binding.

What is more, even in countries that legally recognize communities’ right to FPIC, governments fall short of upholding this right in practice, and global data that focuses on national-level enforcement of FPIC is not currently available.

7380: Lower levels of corruption, as measured by the share of countries scoring relatively highly on absence of corruption

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The World Justice Project (WJP) Rule of Law Index measures three forms of corruption — bribery, undue influence by public or private interests, and misappropriation of public funds or other resources — across the executive, judicial and legislative branches, as well as within the police and military. Its data is constructed through general population polls and expert questionnaires to capture perceptions of and experiences with corruption in a given country. However, this approach to measuring corruption remains challenging due to definitional issues and that corruption itself is not directly observable. Systems Change Lab includes additional governance system indicators that focus on more specific structural measures that countries have implemented to reduce corruption. Another key limitation of relying on this data is that these three forms of corruption may all influence the freshwater sector, but the data do not specifically measure corruption within the freshwater sector. Rather, this data assesses overall government corruption, which can vary across sectors within the same country. Countries that scored >0.6 on a scale of 0.0 (lowest) to 1.0 (highest) were included in the selection criteria as indicative of countries that have relatively low levels of corruption. This threshold was determined jointly via expert judgment by Systems Change Lab and WJP researchers. Finally, data is available beginning in 2012, but to maintain a more consistent country sample, Systems Change Lab presents data from 2021 onward. The number of countries included in each year of data varied: 139 countries in 2021, 140 countries in 2022, 142 countries in 2023 and 2024, and 143 countries in 2025. The numerator reflects the number of countries that scored >0.6, while the denominator includes all countries with scores in a given year. 

In the global freshwater system, corruption can be particularly prevalent in megaprojects commonly associated with water resource development such as hydropower; it can also emerge in other areas of the water sector, from water resources management to drinking water services and irrigation.

Protecting freshwater ecosystems depends not only on governments strengthening conservation policies but also on their willingness to act with integrity and apply the rule of law consistently, including to those with political and economic power.

Abuses of power for private gain can occur across all levels of government. And, in some cases, corrupt interests can become so deeply ingrained within governments that they influence environmental policymaking and legalize actions that harm ecosystems.

According to the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index, corruption is relatively low in roughly 43% of countries, a figure that has remained fairly stable in recent years. The lack of marked progress highlights the need for continued efforts to curb corruption in all its forms. Evidence suggests that in countries with significant freshwater resources — such as those in the Mekong River Basin — corruption continues to pose a challenge. 

7394: Stronger regulatory enforcement, as measured by the share of countries scoring relatively highly on regulatory enforcement

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The World Justice Project (WJP) Rule of Law Index measures the extent to which legal and administrative regulations are effectively and fairly implemented and enforced. It examines whether regulatory enforcement is subject to improper influence, administrative proceedings are conducted without unreasonable delays, due process is respected within these proceedings, and governments respect property rights. A key limitation of relying on this data is that these facets of regulatory enforcement all impact the freshwater sector, but the data do not specifically measure effective enforcement of freshwater regulations. Rather, this data assesses overall regulatory enforcement, which can vary among sectors within the same country. Countries that scored over >0.6 on a scale of 0.0 (lowest) to 1.0 (highest) were included in the selection criteria as indicative of countries that have relatively high levels of regulatory enforcement. This threshold was determined jointly via expert judgement by Systems Change Lab and WJP researchers. Finally, data are available beginning in 2012, but to maintain a more consistent country sample, we present data from 2021 onwards. Still, the number of countries included in each year of data varied: 139 countries in 2021, 140 countries in 2022, 142 countries in 2023 and 2024, and 143 countries in 2025. So, the numerator reflects the number of countries that scored >0.6, while the denominator includes all countries with scores in a given year.

Insufficient resources and weak institutional capacity often impede governments that have established strong conservation policies on paper from enforcing them in practice. Recent studies, for example, indicate that stronger governance is associated with lower levels of mangrove loss — even in areas with high degrees of human pressure. Conversely, other research indicates that lower levels of effective governance, coupled with weak enforcement of conservation laws and low levels of investments, are linked to higher rates of ecosystem, habitat and biodiversity loss.

Measuring government capacity, however, can be quite difficult — encompassing mechanisms for coordinating across ministries and at different scales of government, leadership structures, processes for allocating funds to local levels, and institutional incentives needed to deliver conservation strategies. This indicator relies on aggregate scores focused on regulatory enforcement from the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index as a proxy.

As of 2025, only 31% of 143 governments around the world boasted relatively high levels of regulatory enforcement, and this share has remained relatively stable. 

7387: Finance for restoration, as measured by total finance for nature-based solutions

Increasing dedicated financial flows to support ecosystem protection, and the local communities using these ecosystems, is vital to limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) and conserving biodiversity. Despite these measures’ substantial potential to help combat both crises, as well as their relatively low costs and clear co-benefits to sustainable, climate-resilient development, public and private finance lag far behind estimated needs.

Globally consistent, annually updated data on funding dedicated to effectively halting the conversion and degradation of freshwater ecosystems is currently not available. However, the United Nations Environment Programme publishes the State of Finance for Nature, which routinely estimates public and private funds flowing to nature-based solutions, including measures to protect freshwater ecosystems. Its most recent assessment finds that total tracked finance to support these critical solutions reached just $220 billion in 2023, as compared to the estimated $571 billion needed by 2030 to meet global commitments under the Rio Conventions.

This gap is concerning, especially given that the finance flows measured by this indicator are not exclusive to freshwater ecosystem protection and that freshwater ecosystems tend to receive less dedicated funding than other ecosystems.

Worse still, the most recent available evidence also suggests that even these limited funds often fail to reach the local level, where most implementation occurs.

7405: Agricultural subsidies with conservation or climate objectives, as measured by public agricultural support dedicated to conservation, production retirement and other public goods among OECD members and select other countries

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

OECD agricultural policy data on “Producer Support Estimates (PSE)” and “General Services Support Estimates (GSSE)” was reorganized into the categories outlined in Table 3.1 (p. 17) in the World Bank report Revising Public Agricultural Support to Mitigate Climate Change. The percent of agricultural support spent on conservation, production retirement and other public goods (for simplicity, referred to here as spending for “conservation and climate objectives”) was divided by total PSE and GSSE spending. Spending classified within the conservation and climate objectives category here includes spending on agri-environmental-climate schemes and other programs to encourage environmentally friendly production practices, such as improving nutrient or pest management, irrigation efficiency, water and soil conservation, and biodiversity preservation. Examples of specific programs in the European Union, United States and China are listed on page 20 of Revising Public Agricultural Support to Mitigate Climate Change. This dataset reflects government support to the agricultural sector across OECD countries, non-OECD EU member states and select additional emerging economies. The countries included are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, countries in the EU, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, the Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, the United States and Vietnam. Therefore, a limitation of this indicator is that the “world” calculations do not reflect all countries.

Too often, governments financially incentivize ecosystem conversion and degradation. Currently valued at over $700 billion per year, government support directed to the agricultural sector — which includes but is not limited to subsidies — aims to bolster farmers’ incomes and livelihoods, ensure price stability and food security, and improve environmental outcomes.

However, recent reports from United Nations agencies and the World Bank estimated that more than 60% of this government support can lead to unintended consequences that increase greenhouse gas emissions, drive biodiversity loss, distort food prices, exacerbate inequality and harm human health. Poorly designed input subsidies, for example, can incentivize the overuse of fertilizer, while output payments and market price support may require farmers to grow less efficient crops, unintentionally spurring cropland expansion into intact ecosystems. 

Reforming public support for agriculture can not only help reduce unsustainable practices but also provide much-needed assistance for farmers seeking to shift to technologies, practices and approaches that minimize land-use change, greenhouse gas emissions and other harms to biodiversity. Yet most recent data based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicates that just 5.2% of agricultural subsidies supported climate or conservation objectives in 2023 across OECD and other select countries; together, these countries account for nearly two-thirds of the world’s agricultural production. Greater adoption of such subsidies will require reforming existing policies, better incentivizing farmers to participate, and in some cases, overcoming political resistance.

Other shift Other shifts needed to transform the system

Minimize disruptions to the timing and quantity of the water cycle

Amid disruptions from climate change, overconsumption of water in developed economies and land use change, safeguarding the water cycle is essential to ensuring a future where communities and ecosystems thrive.

Restore freshwater ecosystems

Restoring freshwater ecosystems is vital to limiting global warming, adapting to climate change and reversing biodiversity loss. Healthy rivers, lakes and wetlands — including salt marshes, mangroves and peatlands — are fundamental to planetary health and human well-being.

Sharply reduce water pollution and improve water quality

Freshwater quality is declining worldwide, reducing access to clean water and increasing pressure on biodiversity. Rapid action is needed to curb human activities driving water pollution and secure a long-term supply of clean water for all.

Ensure equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water, sanitation and hygiene for all

Equitable and affordable access to clean water and safe sanitation and hygiene services are essential for human health, ecosystem protection and climate resilience. However, billions of people, particularly those with the fewest resources, are still being left behind.

Halt the overexploitation of wild, freshwater species and ensure sustainable use

Freshwater species play vital roles in keeping water clean, cycling nutrients and underpinning human food systems. Yet they are disappearing at alarming rates — a crisis that threatens to unravel ecosystems, weaken the planet’s ability to provide clean water and undermine human well-being.