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Since industrial process emissions that result from chemical reactions cannot be eliminated by decarbonizing the energy supply, new solutions and production methods are critically needed.

In most sectors, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from the combustion of fossil fuels. In these cases, electrification and the direct use of renewable energy are prime solutions for decarbonization. Even though eliminating energy-related emissions will make an important contribution, process emissions resulting from chemical reactions in various industrial processes make up a substantial part and will also need to be tackled.

Industrial process emissions cannot be tackled by decarbonizing the energy supply and need new solutions and methods

Many industrial subsectors involve the chemical processing of raw materials, such as iron ore or limestone. That process typically releases carbon from the raw material into the atmosphere, resulting in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. These emissions, commonly referred to as process emissions, cannot be eliminated by decarbonizing the energy supply.

Cement, steel and chemicals are responsible for about 70% of industrial CO2 emissions. A significant share of those emissions are process emissions, and plastics production is one of the major emissions sources in the chemicals industry. Thus, the adoption of alternative methods to create cement, steel and plastics while lowering industry’s climate impact is crucial. Pathways toward this goal vary depending on the product and all are in different stages of technological development.

For some industrial processes, such as steel production, switching to carbon-free feedstocks like green hydrogen is a viable solution. For other processes, such as cement production, few scalable options exist today. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is likely to play an important role. CCS could also become crucial for the decarbonization of industrial plants with long lifespans, or those that are located in geographies with limited ability to produce or obtain carbon-free feedstocks.

Most solutions to mitigate process emissions need to be commercialized and coupled with the development of appropriate infrastructure

Most of the novel technologies that eliminate process emissions are still early in their development and will need accelerated scaling and commercialization. However, their progress will depend on access to finance, effective policies and increased demand for low-carbon industrial products.

In addition to the adoption of novel technologies, the development of new infrastructure — for example, to transport and store captured carbon and green hydrogen — will be an important step. The supply of green hydrogen itself must be ensured while making it cost-competitive with fossil fuels and feedstocks.

Because the manufacture of steel and cement generate high levels of process emissions, it is important to monitor each industries’ progress in lowering these levels. Green hydrogen production must also be tracked, given its expected role in mitigating process emissions in industry.

Tracking progress on global outcomes

2200: Carbon intensity of cement production

Status: Well Off Track
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

This indicator was collected from the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA), which tracks progress in the cement and concrete sector and has developed a sector-specific Net Zero Roadmap to 2050. Full data description, licensing information and additional details are available from the GCCA.

Target Methodology:

Climate Action Tracker (CAT) derived the highlighted targets from bottom-up methods to establish near- and long-term targets, as well as top-down methods to validate these goals. Because integrated assessment models provide less granularity and are thus limited in terms of their potential for defining sectoral targets, CAT relied on bottom-up, sectoral modeling tools, which allowed the authors to apply a wider range of mitigation options that would enable full decarbonization of the sector as quickly as possible. Academic and gray literature assessing the technical and feasible potential of these mitigation options within the industry sector informed this bottom-up, sectoral modeling. CAT then compared the targets derived from this bottom-up, sectoral modeling with those from the filtered set of IPCC (2018) scenarios to ensure that if there was any discrepancy, the targets taken from the bottom-up, sectoral modeling would be more ambitious in achieving decarbonization more rapidly. For the carbon intensity of global cement production indicator, CAT considered both direct emissions and indirect emissions generated by power used during production.

S-Curve Trajectory:

Changes in this indicator are based on the adoption of innovative technologies such as the electrification of high heat, development of novel cement chemistries, and carbon capture and storage, which may be nonlinear. However, it is also dependent upon other developments such as industrial energy efficiency and clinker substitution, which are likely to be incremental.

The carbon intensity of cement measures the average amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted for each tonne of cement produced. That includes direct emissions from fuel combustion, process emissions and indirect emissions from electricity consumption.

The carbon intensity of global cement production has declined in the last couple of decades. This largely stemmed from the use of alternative fuels, substitution of clinker with other materials, and increased energy and process efficiency. However, the rate of change has leveled off in recent years as the energy efficiency of the equipment used for cement production nears optimum levels.

Even if the decline in carbon intensity continues at the pace set between 2019 and 2023, it would still decrease only marginally and fall far short of the 2030 and 2050 climate targets. Targets compatible with the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal require the carbon intensity of cement to reach 360–370 kilograms (kg) CO2/tonne in 2030 and 55–90 kg CO2/tonne in 2050, with an aspirational target of net-zero emissions in 2050.

Achieving these targets will require using less cement in construction through more efficient designs, as well as developing and scaling technological solutions for decarbonization such as substituting clinker, the main binder used in cement, with other less emissions-intensive materials (e.g., calcined clay, fly ash) to produce blended cement.

Given these targets, this indicator is well off track. For industry to follow a 1.5 degrees C-compatible pathway, improvements in the carbon intensity of cement need to accelerate by a factor of four.

442: CO2 emissions from cement production

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Global values were calculated by aggregating country values for each year, then converted from tCO2 to MtCO2.

S-Curve Trajectory:

Changes in this indicator are based on the adoption of innovative technologies such as the electrification of high heat, development of novel cement chemistries, and carbon capture and storage. However, it is also dependent upon other developments such as industrial energy efficiency, clinker substitution and cement demand reduction, which are likely to be incremental.

The total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions generated by global cement production includes direct emissions from fuel combustion, process emissions and indirect emissions from electricity consumption. Direct CO2 emissions from global cement production have more than doubled since 2000 and continue to rise. In 2022, they reached about 1,600 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2).

In addition to tracking the carbon intensity of cement, this indicator provides a picture of whether changes in the demand for cement are outpacing advances in the carbon intensity of cement. It also tracks the industry’s contribution to global emissions.

Due to the lack of appropriate Paris Agreement-compatible targets, we cannot calculate an acceleration factor or evaluate whether or not this indicator is on track. However, emissions are rising despite a decline in the carbon intensity of cement production, meaning that total cement production is currently offsetting improvements.

3687: Carbon intensity of steel production

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Data was collected from the environmental sustainability indicators from the World Steel Association.

Target Methodology:

Climate Action Tracker (CAT) derived the targets from bottom-up methods to establish near- and long-term targets, as well as top-down methods to validate these goals. Because integrated assessment models provide less granularity and are thus limited in terms of their potential for defining sectoral targets, CAT relied on bottom-up, sectoral modeling tools, which allowed the authors to apply a wider range of mitigation options that would enable full decarbonization of the sector as quickly as possible. Academic and gray literature assessing the technical and feasible potential of these mitigation options within the industry sector informed this bottom-up, sectoral modeling. CAT then compared the targets derived from this bottom-up, sectoral modeling with those from the filtered set of IPCC (2018) scenarios to ensure that if there was any discrepancy, the targets taken from the bottom-up, sectoral modeling would be more ambitious in achieving decarbonization more rapidly.

S-Curve Trajectory:

Changes in this indicator are, to a large extent, based on the adoption of innovative technologies such as hydrogen-based steel production and carbon capture and storage, among others, which may be nonlinear. However, they are also dependent upon other developments, such as the availability of steel scrap and clean electricity supply, which are likely to be incremental.

The carbon intensity of steel measures the average amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted per tonne of steel produced, and considers both primary and secondary steel production. Primary steel production refers to steel produced through the reduction of iron ore which is then processed into steel, while secondary steel production refers to the recycling of scrap steel into useful steel again. Carbon intensity includes direct emissions from fuel combustion, process emissions and indirect emissions from electricity consumption.

The carbon intensity of global steel production has remained fairly steady, although the last five years witnessed a slight increase. It reached 1,920 kilograms (kg) CO2 per tonne (t) in 2023, up from 1,830 kg CO2/t in 2019. The intensity rose by 3% in 2020, followed by 1% annually in 2021 and 2022, then levelled off. The average rate of change over the last five years suggests that global efforts to reduce it are heading in the wrong direction, likely the result of an increased share of blast furnace-based steel production.

Reversing the course will require using new, low-carbon technologies with clean electricity for primary steel production, and producing more secondary steel from steel scrap despite limited availability. It will also require phasing out older plants running on conventional technology, as well as greater adoption of decarbonization technologies across conventional steelmaking facilities, where 70% of the world’s steel is currently produced.

If recent trends continue, the carbon intensity of global steel production will continue to rise and the 2030 and 2050 targets will not be reached. The targets require that the carbon intensity declines to 1335-1350 kg CO2/t of steel by 2030 and 0-130 kg CO2/t of steel by 2050.

444: CO2 emissions from steel production

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

CO2 emissions calculated by multiplying steel production by intensity.

S-Curve Trajectory:

Changes in this indicator are, to a large extent, based on the adoption of innovative technologies such as hydrogen-based steel production and carbon capture and storage, among others, which may be nonlinear. However, they are also dependent upon other developments, such as the availability of steel scrap, clean electricity supply and steel demand reduction, which are likely to be incremental.

Total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from global steel production include direct emissions from fuel combustion and process emissions, as well as indirect emissions from electricity consumption. Due to limited progress to date in reducing the average carbon intensity of steel production, combined with increased global steel production, CO2 emissions from steel production are growing, reaching about 3,551 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 in 2020.

Tracking total CO2 emissions from steel production provides a picture of whether changes in the demand for steel outpace advances in the carbon intensity of steel, which is not captured in the CO2 intensity indicator. It also measures the industry’s contribution to global emissions.

Due to the lack of appropriate Paris Agreement-compatible targets, we cannot calculate an acceleration factor or evaluate whether or not this indicator is on track.

1912: Total installed electrolyzer capacity

Status: Well Off Track
Target Methodology:

The targets were sourced from Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach, which models the electrolyzer capacity by 2030 in order to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

S-Curve Trajectory:

Changes in this indicator are based on the adoption of electrolyzers, which are an established technology, but with recent innovations available. Such technologies tend to follow an S-curve trajectory if they are successfully adopted.

Electrolytic hydrogen is produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using electrolyzers. Tracking the total installed capacity of electrolyzers can provide a sense of how much the sector is growing and if it is in line with a 1.5 degrees C-compatible trajectory.

In order to achieve our climate goals, the International Energy Agency's "Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach" estimates that the installed electrolyzer capacity needs to reach 590 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. Although the installed electrolyzer capacity has increased in recent years (from about 0.2 GW in 2015 to 2 GW in 2024), the current rate of change is not nearly enough to reach the 2030, 2035 and 2050 targets of 590 GW, 1,350 GW and 3,300 GW, respectively. Progress needs to accelerate significantly in order to meet these targets.

Reaching the 2030 target will require a vast expansion of renewable energy power installations. Because the price of electricity makes up most of the final cost of producing electrolytic hydrogen, regions with an ample supply of clean, low-cost renewable energies may become electrolytic hydrogen exporters.

2203: Green hydrogen production

Status: Well Off Track
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Data is behind the IEA paywall.

Target Methodology:

The targets were sourced from World Energy Outlook 2024, which modeled the projected demand for electrolytic hydrogen across sectors by 2030, 2035 and2050 to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

S-Curve Trajectory:

Electrolytic hydrogen is produced using an electrolyzer fed by power generated from renewable sources (that is, solar and wind). The electrolyzer is an established technology, but with recent innovations available. Such technologies tend to follow an S-curve trajectory if they are successfully adopted. Similarly, the deployment of solar and wind power is also expected to follow exponential growth.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

For indicators categorized as S-curve likely, acceleration factors calculated using a linear trendline are not presented, as they would not accurately reflect an S-curve trajectory. The category of progress was determined based on author judgment, using multiple lines of evidence. More specifically, this indicator is categorized as well off track because it is a new technology that is still in the emergence stage of an S-curve. The current trend arrow assumes that the current rate of exponential growth in electrolytic hydrogen continues along an S-curve, but because electrolytic hydrogen production is at such a low starting point today, even exponential growth appears flat.

See our methodology page and the latest State of Climate Action for more information on our approach for assessing progress.

Because there are various ways to produce hydrogen — through the use of fossil fuels, fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, electrolyzers with dedicated clean or grid electricity and more — tracking the production of hydrogen by technology is important to evaluate what production methods are gaining ground. Using dedicated zero-carbon power — meaning new electric supply built specifically to run electrolyzers — is crucial to ensure hydrogen production delivers genuine emissions reductions rather than diverting clean power from other uses. Even if electrolytic hydrogen production increases, it may not use dedicated zero-carbon electricity, or fossil-based hydrogen production could grow at a faster pace, which would result in rising emissions.

Global electrolytic hydrogen production has grown quickly in recent years, though it started at very low levels. Between 2017 and 2023, global electrolytic hydrogen production increased seventy times, from 0.001 million tonnes (Mt) to 0.07 Mt, respectively. Nonetheless, the current rate of change is insufficient and needs to accelerate significantly to reach the 2030 target of 49 Mt. By 2035, electrolytic hydrogen production should reach 118 Mt, and by 2050 it should reach about 330 Mt.

Key enablers and barriers to change

2064: Corporate research and development spending for cement

Target Methodology:

Due to lack of data, we cannot track trends for this indicator.

Because mitigating emissions from traditional cement production is challenging, novel technologies will be needed to achieve decarbonization. Most of those technologies are still in the early phases and need additional financing for development and commercialization.

Investing in low-carbon industrial plants is expensive and comes with high financial risks, which must be shared across private and public sectors. Although companies must dedicate more money to research and development, public support is essential to manage risks and reward early movers.

It is challenging to introduce new technologies to a market that already provides the product unless those technologies are economically competitive. Public spending can catalyze private investment and accelerate innovation, speed up financial decisions, or make up for initial cost gaps which may make the technology uncompetitive in its early stages of development.

2065: Clinker-to-cement ratio

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

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Clinker acts as the glue in cement. Since clinker production is responsible for about 90% of cement emissions, one of the key mitigation goals for the cement industry is reducing the share of clinker that is used per tonne of cement.

Substituting clinker with other materials with lower carbon intensities (commonly referred to as supplementary cementitious materials) can reduce overall emissions from cement production. At the same time, it can reduce the fuel expenditures required.

There are many reasons for variations in the clinker-to-cement ratio, including availability of supplementary cementitious materials, desired strengths of the concrete and varying cement standards across different jurisdictions. Traditionally, supplementary cementitious materials have included fly ash and slag from coal-fired power and steel production, but other materials, such as calcined clays, have gained increased attention in recent years.

The global average clinker-to-cement ratio has declined historically, from 85% in 1990 to 76% in 2022, but remained relatively stable in the last ten years. 

2067: Low-carbon cement projects planned to become operational

Tracking the number of planned low-carbon cement facilities shows how fast the transition to novel low-carbon technologies is taking place. The indicator can be used to estimate the expected production of low-carbon cement and whether it is in line with a 1.5 degrees C-compatible trajectory.

Although this indicator lacks a comprehensive data source, a growing number of companies are developing low-carbon cements and piloting carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. A total of 39 carbon capture projects were announced in the cement sector by the end of 2022. According to the current pipeline, only 13 full-scale plants are planned to become operational by 2030, falling short of the Mission Possible Partnership’s goal of over 20 commercial‑scale carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) plants operational by 2030. 

2068: Production of novel low-carbon cement types

Alternative types of cements are now being developed with different raw materials than those used in traditional cement production. They require less energy to make and generate fewer or no process emissions. To date, very few alternative cement types have been commercialized, facing both technical hurdles and policy-related barriers, such as the development of new cement standards.

Because low-carbon cement technologies are still being developed, current supplies come from pilot or demonstration plants, and the volume is negligible compared to traditional cement production.

The future role of alternative cements in decarbonizing the cement industry is unclear. Production could be limited by the regional availability of raw materials as well as the emission reduction potential per unit of cementitious material. However, they hold potential as a mitigation alternative to reduce dependence on carbon capture and storage.

2069: Cost of producing decarbonized cement

Cement companies moving to low-carbon technologies take on risks because their actions can increase the price of cement. There are three main reasons for this potential increase: new infrastructure is costly, emerging technologies have not yet reached economies of scale and decarbonized fuels and feedstocks are still more expensive than fossil fuels in most parts of the world.

By tracking the cost of producing decarbonized cement using various technologies or production processes, we can determine how different decarbonization production routes are progressing and identify the cost gap between decarbonized and traditional cement. A 2023 study found alternative cements to be 2-3 times more expensive than ordinary cement.

2066: Alternative fuels for thermal energy in cement production

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The values were determined by adding the share of alternative fuels and biomass in thermal energy consumption.

Heat generated from fuel combustion is responsible for 30-40% of carbon emissions from cement production. The majority of that fuel is currently fossil fuel, but lower-carbon alternatives could be substituted, such as sustainable biomass and waste. However, because of the limited potential supply of sustainable biomass, this option isn’t a long-term solution.

Because of the high temperatures required for cement production (about 1450 degrees C, or 2642 degrees F), electrifying that heat demand is technically challenging but possible. More development will help speed commercialization.

Using solar heat directly could be a promising solution. In 2022, CEMEX and Synhelion successfully ran the first cement kiln powered by solar heat.

Switching to higher shares of alternative fuels offers short-term mitigation potential. The share of alternative fuels in the thermal energy mix for cement production has almost doubled in 15 years, rising from 10% in 2006 to 19% in 2019.

2070: Low-carbon cement projects that have been announced

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Data is cumulative.

Because the production of low-carbon cement will require the development and application of new technology, tracking the number of announced low-carbon cement facilities gives an indication of how the sector is progressing.

This indicator, for instance, can show how the sector reacts to policies and regulations, or other external factors which could affect low-carbon development. By zeroing in on the type of technologies being considered, we can also evaluate the development of specific approaches.

A growing number of companies are developing low-carbon cements and piloting carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. A total of 70 carbon capture projects had been announced in the cement sector by the end of 2024. The world’s first industrial-scale CCS cement plant became operational in June 2025. Additionally, 20 calcined clay projects — producing calcined clay to substitute for clinker — were announced between 2020 and 2024, resulting in a total of 23 calcined clay projects globally.

2071: Cement production under a supporting policy for green cement production

Supporting policies for low-carbon cement are important instruments to speed up the transition to a decarbonized cement sector. Such policies could include green public procurement to increase the demand for low-carbon cement and contribute to a more secure market. Leading countries in cement public procurement include France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.

"Contracts for differences" could help companies reduce the financial risks of investing in novel low-carbon technologies. A range of other mechanisms — including tax incentives, low-carbon product standards and performance-based building codes — can further incentivize the adoption of low-carbon cement technologies.

Measuring the share of global cement production that is covered by such policies helps us to track progress, identify gaps and analyze the effectiveness of various policies.

2072: Cement companies setting net-zero targets

In addition to government policies, companies' own targets to reduce emissions can contribute to an increased ambition loop, especially if they commit to targets that are more challenging than existing policies in place within the company’s jurisdiction.

A strong commitment to net-zero emissions requires companies to develop clear decarbonization roadmaps and focus on implementation, which in turn can send signals to the rest of the industry. By tracking the number of cement companies that are committing to net-zero emissions, we can get a clearer picture of the momentum toward decarbonization.

Companies committing to net zero is a good first step, which then should be followed by a strong focus on implementation to ensure that the targets can be achieved. 

Due to a lack of data, we cannot track trends for this indicator.

2073: Cement production covered by a net-zero roadmap

National net-zero roadmaps for an industry can send clear signals to the industry in terms of the level of ambition and potential future policy measures.

Tracking the share of global cement production that is covered by a national net-zero roadmap also allows us to estimate where the sector is heading in terms of reducing emissions, compare that to what is needed to align with a 1.5 degrees C-compatible pathway and identify potential gaps.

2074: Construction companies setting Science Based Targets for scope 3 emissions

Creating demand for low-carbon cement is key to stimulating its development. As the main cement consumer, the construction industry could have a significant impact.

By taking responsibility for their scope 3 emissions in their emissions reduction targets, building companies can accelerate demand for low-carbon cements. Scope 3 emissions include indirect emissions originating from downstream and upstream along the value chain of cement production. They include all emissions that are not scope 1 or 2 emissions.

Acknowledging scope 3 emissions would indicate the future demand for low-carbon cement, which can help cement-producing companies reduce the risks associated with investing in novel, low-carbon technologies. As of November 2023, no science-based targets by construction companies included scope 3 emissions.

746: Jobs in research, development and innovation for low-carbon cement

More information is coming soon.

2075: Corporate research and development spending for low-carbon steel

Low-carbon steel technologies are in various stages of development and speeding up their commercialization is urgently needed. Timing is critical, because there are many traditional steel plants which will reach new investment cycles within the next ten years. If low-carbon technologies are not ready to be deployed and scaled up by then, there is a risk that new investments could be directed toward carbon-intensive technologies, resulting in carbon lock-in effects.

The financial risks of investing in new industrial plants are large and need to be shared by the public and private sectors. As part of that, corporate spending on research and development must accelerate.

Due to the lack of data, we cannot track trends for this indicator.

2076: Cost of producing decarbonized steel

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Current global aggregate data is not available, but the type of technology archetypes is available and represents regional or global averages.

Steel companies switching to low-carbon technologies take risks by investing in new technologies because their actions can increase the price of steel. New infrastructure is costly, emerging technologies have not yet matured or reached economy of scale, and decarbonized fuels and feedstocks are still more expensive than fossil fuels in most parts of the world.

By tracking the cost of producing decarbonized steel using various technologies, we can get an overview of how fast different decarbonization technologies are progressing and identify the cost gap between decarbonized and traditional steel.

In 2020, steel produced with a conventional blast furnace to basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) — the most emissions-intensive technology — was the cheapest way of producing primary steel on a global average at about $462/tonne of crude steel.

Producing primary steel with a BF-BOF equipped with carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) would increase the price to about $736/tonne of crude steel. A cheaper option to produce near-zero-emission steel is to opt for green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) at $716/tonne of crude steel.

The cheapest way of producing near-zero-emission steel is by producing secondary steel (scrap-EAF), which uses recycled steel scrap and costs $411/tonne of crude steel. 

2078: Secondary steel in total steel production

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Country-level data is not comprehensive.

The most efficient and least energy-intensive way of producing low-carbon steel is through the recycling of scrap steel. Scrap steel is collected and melted in an electric arc furnace, which is run fully on electricity. By using clean electricity to run the furnace, steel can be produced with almost no emissions.

This technology is already commercialized and used in many parts of the world. However, production is limited by the supply of scrap steel, which varies across regions and countries. There is significant potential to increase scrap steel production, but issues such as contamination, the availability of scrap steel, poor sorting systems and high installed capacities of primary steel production can impede progress.

The share of secondary steel in global crude steel production remained largely static from 2018 to 2021, though comprehensive global data is not available for this indicator. 

2079: Low-carbon steel projects to phase out blast-furnace production

The most efficient and least energy-intensive way of producing low-carbon steel is through the recycling of scrap steel. Scrap steel is collected and melted in an electric arc furnace, which is run fully on electricity. By using clean electricity to run the furnace, steel can be produced with almost no emissions.

This technology is already commercialized and used in many parts of the world. However, production is limited by the supply of scrap steel, which varies across regions and countries. There is significant potential to increase scrap steel production, but issues such as contamination, the availability of scrap steel, poor sorting systems and high installed capacities of primary steel production can impede progress.

Because the production of low-carbon steel will require the development and application of new technology, tracking the number of announced low-carbon steel facilities provides an indication of how the sector is progressing. By zeroing in on the type of technologies being considered, we can evaluate the development of specific approaches.

In the case of steel, 89% of all existing low-carbon steel projects that phase out conventional steelmaking technology were added between 2021 and 2024, with every year during this period seeing at least 20% growth in the number of announced projects. Of these recently announced projects, almost 60% are full-scale projects, which is an improvement from demonstration and pilot projects and illustrates progress toward commercializing low-carbon steel technologies.

2080: Low-carbon steel projects planned to become operational

In addition to monitoring the number of announced low-carbon steel projects, tracking when those projects are slated to become operational can be useful in showing the state of the sector and how fast various technologies are developing. By tracking whether the planned projects are put in operation according to initial timelines, we can also get an enhanced understanding of how fast low-carbon steel facilities can be deployed. By studying the geographical distribution of those projects, we can further identify countries and regions where more efforts are needed.

Based on data through 2022, of the projects currently in the pipeline, 54 are projected to be in operation by 2030. Due to the lack of appropriate targets and lack of data on the production capacity of those facilities, we cannot yet judge whether the current pipeline is in line with a Paris Agreement-compatible scenario. 

2081: Steel companies committing to zero-emission steel

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Values determined by counting the number of companies in Leadit’s Green Steel Tracker that had announced projects.

In addition to government policies, companies' own targets to reduce emissions can contribute to an increased ambition loop, leading to rising momentum within the sector by committing to targets that are more ambitious than policies in place within the company’s jurisdiction. A commitment to net-zero emissions requires companies to develop clear decarbonization roadmaps and can send signals to the rest of the industry. By tracking the number of steel companies that have committed to net-zero emissions, we can get a clearer picture of the momentum toward decarbonization in the global steel sector.

According to data from the Green Steel Tracker, as of November 2023, 31 steel companies had committed to net-zero emissions and one company had pledged 95% emissions reductions. Out of the 31, 25 companies aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, while others state 2030 or 2045 or 2060 as their target year. Announcements of net-zero emission plans jumped from two in 2020 to 16 in 2021.

Committing to net-zero is an important first step, which should be followed by a strong focus on implementation to make sure that targets are achieved.

2082: Steel production covered by national net-zero roadmaps

National net-zero roadmaps for an industry can send clear signals to the industry in terms of the level of ambition and potential future policy measures. Tracking the share of global steel production that is covered by a national net-zero roadmap also allows us to estimate progress on decarbonization, assess what is needed to align with a 1.5 degrees C-compatible pathway and identify potential gaps.

2083: Automotive companies setting Science Based Targets including scope 3 emissions

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Values determined by filtering the Science Based Targets initiative database by Near Term - Target Status (“Targets Set”), Sector (“Automobiles and Components”) and by companies with targets covering scope 3 emissions. 

No comprehensive historical record was identified for this indicator.

One of the key enablers to stimulate the development of low-carbon steel is to create a demand for it. As one of the main steel consumers, the automotive industry could have a significant impact on increasing this demand. By taking responsibility for scope 3 emissions in their emissions reduction targets, automotive manufacturers will let steel companies know that there will be a demand for low-carbon steel, which can help reduce the risks associated with investing in novel low-carbon technologies.

There are currently no automotive companies with science-based targets that include scope 3 emissions.

745: Jobs in research, development and innovation for low-carbon steel

More information is coming soon.

2084: Research and development spending on green hydrogen

The production of green hydrogen is still an emerging technology. It needs further development to improve the electrolyzer efficiency, optimize production, reduce costs and develop new infrastructure.

Green hydrogen is becoming an area of interest for both public and private entities. In private entities, a rising interest for green hydrogen is starting to emerge among industrial companies such as steel manufacturers and chemical companies. Public interests are linked to several countries aiming to export green hydrogen or use it domestically to boost energy security.

Further, the hydrogen economy will require the development of new infrastructure. Public investments in green hydrogen production, storage and transportation will therefore play an important role in the development of the sector. Increased corporate research and development (R&D) spending on green hydrogen production can also contribute to economies of scale, increasing the viability of green hydrogen production.

Annual investments in electrolyzer installations doubled from $0.3 billion in 2021 to $0.6 billion in 2022 (based on projects in construction and operation). The investments have been on the rise in the last few years after starting from close to zero in 2016.

According to the International Energy Agency, public spending makes up a significant part of those investments and is driven by several new governmental initiatives supporting low-carbon hydrogen.

2085: Cost of producing hydrogen

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Global cost of green hydrogen production is not available, as the cost varies by technology.

The cost of hydrogen is driven by the cost of technology and the energy source used. Because there are various ways of producing hydrogen, the decision to use green hydrogen is likely to be based partly on its cost-competitiveness as compared to other types of hydrogen.

IEA estimates that green hydrogen could become cost-competitive with natural gas-based hydrogen by 2030. For green hydrogen, which is produced using electrolysis with clean electricity, the cost of electricity and capital cost of electrolyzers are the main components of the hydrogen cost. The cost of producing green hydrogen is expected to decrease when economies of scale and cheaper rates for renewable energy-based electricity are available. At the same time, the cost of producing gray hydrogen could increase in the long term with the implementation of new regulative policies, such as carbon pricing.

In 2021, prior to the global energy crisis, producing hydrogen from unabated fossil fuels was the cheapest production method at $1.0–3.0 per kilogram (kg) of hydrogen. Producing hydrogen with fossil fuels equipped with CCS cost $1.5–3.6/kg, while producing green hydrogen from renewables cost $3.4–12.0/kg.

2086: Average size of electrolyzer plants

To achieve a major increase in the global production of green hydrogen, as required to meet 1.5 degrees C-compatible targets, the average size of electrolyzer plants (which split water into hydrogen and oxygen molecules using electricity) needs to expand. Larger electrolyzer plants can contribute to economies of scale and learning effects, and bring down the cost of green hydrogen production.

The average project size of electrolyzer plants has increased from 0.16 megawatts (MW) in 2009 to 0.64 MW in 2019, about 5 MW in 2021 and 12 MW in 2022. Several projects on the gigawatt scale are being planned.

2087: Governments with published hydrogen strategies

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The 2019 total was determined by IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2021, while 2020 and 2021 numbers were determined by BloombergNEF (BNEF). No database has compiled comprehensive primary data on this indicator. Data is behind the IEA and BNEF paywall.

Governments with roadmaps or strategies for green hydrogen production send clear signals to the private sector. Often, their plans include supporting policies to reduce investment risks for private companies. Strategies may also include specific production or price targets and infrastructure development plans.

The number of governments that have published hydrogen strategies has increased rapidly over the past few years. In 2018, Japan and France were the only two countries which had done so. By 2024, the number of countries had increased to 59.

2088: Companies undertaking commitments to accelerate adoption and deployment of green hydrogen

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The list of companies was compiled by combining companies that pledged to the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)’s Sustainable Market Initiative and companies in the Green Hydrogen Catapult initiative. No database has compiled comprehensive primary data on this indicator. 

In addition to governments, the private sector can accelerate hydrogen deployment through corporate emissions reduction commitments. Either individually or through their participation in initiatives, companies are making pledges to supply or purchase green hydrogen.

For example, at COP26, 28 companies from the energy, transport, industry and financial sectors pledged to produce, consume or provide financial or technical support toward the development of green hydrogen. Seven companies have established a global coalition aiming to increase the production of green hydrogen 50-fold over the next six years.

Several investment platforms that focus on advancing green hydrogen production were also established by private businesses and investment firms in 2021, signaling an uptick in private sector engagement, and at least four hydrogen companies are planning to go public in 2022. As of November 2023, 44 companies had committed to accelerating the adoption and deployment of green hydrogen.

2089: Green hydrogen plans planned to become operational

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Data was derived from IEA’s Hydrogen Projects Database by filtering the type of project/technology and year of operation. Data is behind the paywall.

The list of planned hydrogen electrolyzer projects is growing rapidly. Electrolyzer sales doubled in 2022 and BloombergNEF estimated that the sales could triple in 2023, driven by growing political support and an increasing demand for green hydrogen led by heavy industry. 

In 2023, there were 192 operational green hydrogen projects. As more of these plants come online, they could increase the supply of green hydrogen while also contributing to economies of scale. By 2040, an estimated 827 plants are planned to be in operation.

2090: Jobs in green hydrogen

More information coming soon.

Data challenges

There are two large data-related challenges pertaining to this shift. One is a lack of widely accepted criteria at the global level to determine what constitutes environmental and social harms in the context of resource extraction and harvesting. Setting such criteria requires identifying what harms are significant and relevant to a wide range of activities of resource extraction, as well as determining and often quantifying the level of resource governance so as to avoid the harms of concern practically. An International Resource Panel report, “Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century,” and a scientific paper reviewing 25 sustainability certification programs were a good starting point for us to select indicators in this shift. Still, what exactly qualifies as sustainable and responsible manners of resource extraction remains a topic for further research.

The other challenge is to obtain the data that links environmental and social harms with resource-related activities. These harms usually occur far away from producers, retailers and consumers. Moreover, it is difficult to track such linkages on a country-by-country basis because these are linked along supply chains. Concerted actions to overcome this challenge are necessary.

Actions to measure the state and performance of resource governance are also important, requiring budget and effort as well as collaboration with the resource extraction sector.

Other shift Other shifts needed to transform the system

Reduce demand for cement, steel and plastics

To curb rising demand for industrial products that increase greenhouse gas emissions, we need to mainstream material efficiency and circular economy principles in climate policies, alongside adopting regulations incentivizing efficient resource use.

Improve industrial energy efficiency

Energy efficiency can power net-zero climate goals — it has the potential to mitigate over 40% of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 across all sectors.

Electrify industry

The industry sector is highly energy intensive, as many processes are reliant on heat. Sourcing this energy from electricity, particularly renewable sources, can substantially mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Reduce methane emissions from oil and gas operations as they are phased down

Methane is an extremely potent climate pollutant. In the short term, it’s much more potent than carbon dioxide, which is the most common greenhouse gas. To cut methane emissions in oil and gas operations, we need to adopt better monitoring techniques, take action to end flaring and venting, and identify and fix methane leaks.