Amid disruptions from climate change, overconsumption of water in developed economies and land use change, safeguarding the water cycle is essential to ensuring a future where communities and ecosystems thrive.

The water cycle underpins life

The water cycle — also known as the hydrologic cycle — underpins life on Earth. In this cycle, a fixed quantity of water moves through and is stored across the atmosphere and ecosystems: water falls from the sky via precipitation, after which it may run off the surface into blue water ecosystems like rivers, streams and lakes or be absorbed by plants as green water. Some of these blue and green water sources will later return to the atmosphere via evaporation or transpiration. Blue water that does not evaporate may also trickle further below the Earth's surface into the groundwater zone. There, water may remain for long periods of time or eventually discharge back into rivers, lakes and springs, continuing the cycle.

This cycle of movement and storage of water — also known as freshwater flows and stocks — provides drinking water, food, energy, sanitation and jobs, supports ecosystems and the rich species biodiversity that each are home to, and plays a critical role in climate regulation by absorbing heat and cooling the Earth’s surface. Yet today the quantity and timing of the world’s freshwater flows and stocks are being fundamentally altered, with devastating knock-on effects for people, nature and climate, including reduced water availability and increased water scarcity in many regions.
 

Climate change, land-use change and overextraction are disrupting the water cycle

While these disruptions are driven by a variety of forces, climate change is likely causing the most far-reaching effects. Global temperature rise increases evaporation rates, shrinking both surface water and groundwater stocks; shifts precipitation patterns, making some areas more likely to experience heavier rainfall and others likely to face prolonged periods of dryness; and intensifies extreme weather events including storms, floods and droughts.

These changes have already led to alarming continental drying patterns, surface water and groundwater depletion, alterations to rivers’ environmental flows, reductions in soil moisture that underpins all food production, and increasing water stress and flooding faced by communities. And, just as climate-driven alterations to the quantity and timing of freshwater flows and stocks are increasing risks for people, they are also harming ecosystems and the species that depend on these ecosystems' health and intactness. Monitored freshwater species populations have declined by 85% since 1970, with growing evidence climate change is taking an increasing toll on freshwater biodiversity.

At the same time, other drivers are also disrupting the world’s freshwater flows and stocks. For instance, land-use changes like deforestation driven by agriculture and urban development can result in reduced soil moisture, increased runoff and diminished groundwater recharge, leading to greater flood and drought risks while weakening local and regional climate regulation caused by altered evapotranspiration. Because forests and other terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in regulating the water cycle, conversion of these ecosystems to other land uses is particularly detrimental.

Meanwhile, overabstraction of water for agriculture, industry and domestic use can lower river flows and deplete aquifers, increasing the likelihood of drought and disrupting seasonal water availability and degrading habitats for fish and other freshwater species. And, as the population grows, demand for food, infrastructure, goods and services that fundamentally alter the quantity and timing of freshwater flows and stocks is also rising. The infrastructure built to meet this demand — from hydropower dams to data centers — can simultaneously intensify water scarcity, amplify flood risk and accelerate ecosystem degradation.
 

Protecting the water cycle is paramount

Targets aligned with the latest scientific research and international frameworks like the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals call for dramatically reducing disruptions to blue and green water stocks and flows to safeguard communities and ecosystems. Yet almost all measurable outcome indicators monitored in this shift that track how the world is faring on these critical objectives are heading in the wrong direction.

To reverse course, the world must immediately double down on key actions, including scaling up regulatory policy to alleviate pressures from increasing demand for freshwater resources, investing in water efficiency technologies and strategies that enable agricultural, industrial and domestic users to do more with fewer water withdrawals, and accounting for and adapting to inherent water quantity and timing variability in future planning and management efforts.

Perhaps most important, these measures must be complemented by simultaneous efforts to immediately cut emissions across the global power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and land, and food and agriculture sectors, as well as to scale up carbon dioxide removal and climate finance. Indeed, minimizing disruptions to the quantity and timing of freshwater flows and stocks for both people and nature will largely hinge on the world’s collective ability to mitigate climate change.

Tracking progress on global outcomes

7298: Continental drying, as measured by average annual terrestrial water storage anomaly

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) data was sourced from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On Zenith Path Observations dataset. TWS data was extracted for two spatial aggregations — river basins and climatically similar regions — which produced identical values and are therefore not differentiated. Monthly data was averaged to produce annual global values. Uncertainty estimates exist for each month, though they must be viewed directly at the data source.

Target Methodology:

Reducing continental drying is particularly relevant for minimizing biodiversity loss and enabling sustainable development. But there is no scientific consensus on what constitutes a sufficiently ambitious target for these levels to meet global biodiversity and equity goals. Accordingly, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that continental drying must decline — as informed by Zhang et al. 2025 and Chandanpurkar et al. 2025.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

Because outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes, 10 years instead of 5 years is used to calculate the linear trendline where possible.

Over the last several decades, the world has seen the emergence of a global continental drying phenomenon in which large landmasses have experienced a long-term decline in both ground and surface water availability. Climate change-driven shifts in precipitation, evaporation and streamflow, as well as water and land management decisions that contribute to growing surface water and groundwater withdrawals, are resulting in global freshwater reserves being replaced by megadrying regions at alarming rates.

One study found that, in the Northern Hemisphere, areas experiencing drying have been increasing by twice the size of California annually, and since 2002, 75% of the global population has lived in areas losing freshwater. Critically, while there is increasing evidence that climate change is making both dry areas drier and wet areas wetter, dry areas are drying faster than wet areas are wetting.

Continental drying patterns are devastating people’s livelihoods and water access, as well as species richness and abundance in affected regions. For example, increased aridity and reduced freshwater supply threatens agricultural productivity and jobs in farming communities, reduces capacity for climate adaptation and increases the frequency and severity of wildfires, particularly in biodiversity hotspots. There is also evidence of direct declines in species diversity in freshwater landscapes that have been exposed to elevated drying levels.

Recent studies measuring global continental drying rely on satellite data that measures the world’s terrestrial water storage (TWS), or the total amount of water stored on land, both on and below the surface. When this value declines, continental drying is occurring. Although scientific literature has not identified a clear, quantitative global target for TWS levels that would be sufficient to prevent adverse impacts of continental drying, the urgency of halting this trend is clear. Unfortunately, the most recent data shows an increasingly negative anomaly in terrestrial water storage as compared to the monthly average between 2002 and 2020, showing that TWS levels have been declining since around 2011.

7300: Change in groundwater table levels, as measured by average annual groundwater storage anomaly

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Data was collected from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE/GRACE-FO)-based dataset. The groundwater anomalies are relative to the long-term mean over the period April 2002 through December 2020 and were derived by subtracting the aggregated and Gaussian-filtered (250 km radius) contributions of other terrestrial water storage components — such as moisture, glaciers, snow and surface water — from the total terrestrial water storage variations observed by GRACE/GRACE-FO. Monthly groundwater storage anomaly data was aggregated into annual values by calculating the mean of monthly observations for each year.

Target Methodology:

Groundwater table level is particularly relevant for minimizing biodiversity loss and enabling sustainable development. But there is no scientific consensus on what constitutes a sufficiently ambitious target for these levels to meet global biodiversity and equity goals. Accordingly, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that groundwater table level change must be minimized — as informed by Scanlon et al. 2023, Gibert et al. 2009 and Saito et al. 2021.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

Because outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes, 10 years instead of 5 years is used to calculate the linear trendline where possible.

Groundwater — the water reserves found in subterranean ecosystems, including caves, karsts, springs and aquifers — is the world’s largest supply of freshwater. These reserves provide the majority of water for agriculture, industry and household use, serve as critical buffers against drought by sustaining communities during periods of water scarcity and support high levels of species endemism and significant local and regional diversity.

But, while groundwater and groundwater-dependent ecosystems rely on maintaining specific water levels and flow conditions to provide these vital services, demographic trends (including population growth and urbanization), advances in drilling and pumping technologies, and increasing climate variability have significantly altered groundwater stocks.

The United Nations World Water Development Report 2022 found that at the start of the 21st century, human activities were depleting 15–25% of all groundwater reserves globally. Since then, groundwater withdrawals have exceeded recharge rates entirely in some aquifers, leading to significant long-term storage depletion, particularly in dry regions with extensive croplands. At the same time, some countries and regions have experienced increases in groundwater table levels over time, reflecting regional variability in overall changes to groundwater table levels.

Careful management and monitoring of groundwater to mitigate these changes is essential for both people and the planet. Groundwater restoration — achieved by either decreasing groundwater discharge or increasing recharge — can also support the recovery of these critical water resources.

While explicit quantitative targets for reducing change in groundwater table levels that are aligned with global climate and biodiversity goals are not available in the literature, countries have agreed on the importance of minimizing changes to groundwater table levels under Target 6.6 of the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, in which groundwater volume is a component indicator.

Despite this commitment, the most recent data shows that in 2023, the world lost an average of 14 millimeters of groundwater compared to the long-term average from 2002 to 2020, an anomaly that has only increased over time. These trends affirm a growing groundwater deficit relative to long-term averages, a worrying signal of disruptions to freshwater stocks around the world.

7296: Surface freshwater storage change, as measured by average annual lake and reservoir storage anomaly

Status: Right Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Surface freshwater storage changes were measured using global lake and reservoir level data from the Global Lake Water Storage v1.1 dataset by Yao et al. 2023. Monthly storage values were adjusted for sedimentation-induced storage losses in reservoirs, and annual values were computed as calendar-year averages of the monthly data.

Target Methodology:

1.5 degrees C-compatible targets for surface freshwater storage are not available. Similarly, there is no scientific consensus on what constitutes a sufficiently ambitious target for freshwater biodiversity conservation, and the literature generally lacks quantitative and time-bound targets for this indicator. Accordingly, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that surface freshwater storage change must be minimized — as informed by IPBES 2019.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

Outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Accordingly, 10 years instead of 5 years was used to calculate the linear trendline where possible.

Just as global groundwater levels are changing, so too are levels of water storage across the world’s surface water bodies. There is widespread evidence of declining water storage in the world’s lakes and reservoirs, which together supply nearly 90% of the world’s liquid surface water, as well as declines in water levels across some of the world’s rivers and wetlands.

One recent paper concluded that water storage loss in lakes and reservoirs can be primarily attributed to warming patterns, increasing evaporative demand, growing human water consumption demand and sedimentation, which is often induced by construction of dams.

These changes have damaging repercussions for people, climate and surface freshwater ecosystems. Surface freshwater bodies provide water, food supply and related livelihoods for millions of people, offer important recreational and spiritual services, regulate climate via carbon cycling, and are home to a diverse array of species, many of which are already threatened by changing storage levels.

Because lakes and reservoirs contribute the majority of the world’s surface water freshwater supply, we can measure changing storage patterns in these bodies as a proxy for overall global surface freshwater storage. And, while there is no globally agreed target for surface freshwater storage levels that would be compatible with achieving key climate, biodiversity and equity goals, it is concerning that 53% of the world’s largest freshwater bodies experienced significant storage declines between 1992 and 2020.

The magnitude of these annual declines has decreased slightly in recent years, meaning that recent change is actually moving in the right direction. However, as more frequent and intense rainfall driven by climate change can increase surface water area, while melting glaciers and snowpack can also enlarge surface water bodies, any measured anomaly still reflects a concerning overall disturbance to the world’s water cycle.

7303: Share of rivers with sufficient environmental flows

Status: Insufficient Data
Target Methodology:

The share of rivers with sufficient environmental flows is particularly relevant for minimizing biodiversity loss and promoting sustainable development. But there is no scientific consensus on what constitutes a sufficiently ambitious target for this share to meet global biodiversity and equity goals. Accordingly, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that the share of rivers with sufficient environmental flows must increase — as informed by Arthington et al. 2023.

Environmental flows refer to the water regime needed to maintain the health of a river or stream ecosystem. These flows vary in discharge, timing, duration and frequency depending on the size of the river and the catchment, topography, land cover, climate and geology. A growing consensus within both scientific and policy communities has emphasized that these flows must be maintained at sufficient levels to sustain aquatic ecosystems that, in turn, support human cultures, economies, sustainable livelihoods and well-being.

Maintaining sufficient environmental flows is indeed crucial to ensure the sustainable provision of the range of ecosystem services that rivers provide. For instance, these flows protect river and stream biodiversity (as well as biodiversity in other connected ecosystems like riparian buffers, wetlands, estuaries and lagoons) by preventing successful invasions by invasive and alien species. They also underpin a plethora of ecosystem services for people, including regulating water quality, reducing flood and drought risk and sustaining fish stocks that are essential for global food security.

Historically, largely due to the wide variation in environmental flows across the world’s rivers and streams, there is no widespread consensus around a single method for assessing environmental flows, or around a single global target for what levels of flows are sufficient. Similarly, there is no globally comprehensive dataset that quantifies exactly how flows have changed over time across the world’s rivers.

Nonetheless, there is much evidence to suggest that human use of freshwater (including extraction for rising agricultural, industrial and domestic demand), as well as hydropower development, climate change and physical modifications of river channels, has greatly altered the flow of many rivers across the globe, and resulted in a declining share of rivers with environmental flows sufficient for preventing species extinctions and maintaining ecosystem services that underpin human well-being.

Research shows that to reverse course and maintain sufficient flows for people and nature, we need to more effectively incorporate environmental flows into national and regional water resource management, enhance transboundary and cross-sector collaboration across political jurisdictions and sectors, and implement adaptive management strategies tailored to the realities of a changing climate.

7294: Green water cycle integrity, as measured by land area experiencing deviations in soil moisture relative to a preindustrial baseline

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The dataset presented here extends only to 2005. While current conditions have changed since this data was compiled, the trend spans a 145-year industrial period (1861-2005) and remains the most comprehensive available global dataset measuring soil moisture anomaly over time.

Target Methodology:

1.5 degrees C-compatible targets for green water cycle integrity are not available. Similarly, there is no scientific consensus on what constitutes a sufficiently ambitious target for freshwater biodiversity conservation, and the literature generally lacks quantitative and time-bound targets for this indicator. Accordingly, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that deviations in soil moisture relative to a preindustrial baseline must decline — as informed by IPBES 2019 and IPCC 2022.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

Outcome indicators in this system experience high interannual variability in historical data due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Accordingly, 10 years instead of 5 years was used to calculate the linear trendline where possible.

The rain that falls over land and is absorbed by vegetation — referred to as green water — is the largest source of freshwater on Earth, underpinning global production of food, feed, fiber, timber and bioenergy. The green water cycle also plays a vital role in supporting terrestrial biodiversity, regulating regional and global climate and sustaining ecosystem productivity.

However, the global green water cycle has been subjected to increasing anthropogenic pressures, particularly as soil is degraded by land use changes and the changing climate alters rainfall patterns. These pressures are fundamentally altering where — and how much — green water flows through ecosystems.

While there is no single agreed-upon way to assess the integrity of the green water cycle, one recent study suggests that measuring changes in global soil moisture — the soil water available to plants — can help to elucidate how green water patterns are evolving over time. While assessing the complete green water cycle would include monitoring precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture trends, focusing on just one component of the cycle for which data can be readily collected provides insight into the integrity of the cycle at large.

It is clear global soil moisture trends have changed since the Industrial Revolution: Between 1996 and 2005, an annual average of 16% of global land area experienced a significant deviation in soil moisture as compared to a baseline prior to 1860. Critically, these deviations are not only occurring in one direction. While some regions — particularly in the tropics and subtropics — are primarily experiencing drying trends, temperate and subpolar regions are more commonly seeing increases in soil moisture.

While no global study has yet been published to capture more recent deviations from pre-Industrial Revolution levels of soil moisture, a plethora of recent evidence indicates that global soil moisture trends have, on average, declined since 2005. Future research to compare these declining trends to a preindustrial baseline is needed to more fully understand anthropogenic impacts on the global green water cycle.

7302: Population experiencing medium, high or critical levels of water stress, as measured by the percent of population living in water-stressed countries

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Water stress, as defined by U.N. Water, is “medium” if the ratio between freshwater withdrawn and total renewable freshwater resources is between 50 and 75%, “high” if it exceeds 75% and “critical” if it exceeds 100%. Data is extracted directly from U.N. Water 2024.

Target Methodology:

Reducing the share of population experiencing “medium,” “high” or “extremely high” water stress is particularly relevant for enabling sustainable development. For indicators that primarily focus on building a more just and equitable future, we present targets from the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) wherever possible. The SDGs, however, do not establish a quantitative, time-bound target for this indicator. Instead, SDG 6.4 calls for substantially reducing the number of people suffering from water scarcity. Consequently, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that the share of the population exposed to high levels of water stress must decline.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

Due to data limitations, we deviated from our standard methodology and assessed progress using a linear interpolation using the two data points available (2015 and 2021).

Driven primarily by population growth, overconsumption in developed economies, agricultural expansion and increased industrial demand, global demand for freshwater is exceeding what is available, contributing to a state of increasing global water stress. Around the world, freshwater demand has more than doubled since 1960, and is predicted to continue increasing. As water demand continues to grow, likely so will water stress and, ultimately water scarcity, with many water-rich countries projected to become water-scarce by 2050. And while the climate crisis may increase water availability in some places (e.g., parts of northern Europe, Russia and Canada), overall it will also make water availability less predictable and more difficult to manage.

Water stress level, as defined by the U.N., is the ratio between total freshwater withdrawn by all major sectors and total renewable freshwater resources, after accounting for environmental flow requirements. Notably, countries that have not developed sufficient water infrastructure to meet the needs of their populations may appear to be unstressed when measuring with these ratios, since water withdrawals are lower than they should be to meet actual demand.

The most recent data shows that 31% of the global population lived in medium, high and critical water-stressed countries in 2021, with 8% of that total facing stress levels defined to be critical, or a state in which water stress exceeds 100%. This 31% figure is up from 29% in 2015, meaning that the share of the population experiencing high or critical levels of water stress is moving in the wrong direction.

Reducing the number of people experiencing water stress — an objective agreed to by countries under U.N. Sustainable Development Goal 6.4, although without an accompanying quantitative target — will require a portfolio of solutions, including enhancing water use efficiency across all sectors, implementing policy measures such as water pricing, and incorporating measures to withstand variability in water resources in light of changing climate patterns.

7308: Population threatened by flood risk, as measured by the number of people living in a flood zone

Status: Wrong Direction
Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

We used four datasets to estimate the number of people living in a flood zone over time. Fluvial (river) data came from the Joint Research Centre Global River Flood Hazard Maps, while coastal flood data came from WRI Aqueduct Floods dataset. Population estimates were taken from the Global Human Settlement Population dataset for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025. River basin boundaries were defined using the WRI Aqueduct HydroBASINS dataset. For each population year, we identified the proportion of each population grid cell that falls within either a river or coastal flood zone. These flood-exposed population estimates were then summed for each river basin and country. The flood hazard layers are static across epochs. As a result, interyear change reflects changes in where people live relative to these flood-prone areas, rather than changes in the flood hazard itself. As defined by the datasets used in this indicator, the coastal flood zone represents flooding from storm surges and occurs along coastlines around the world during a 1-in-100-year flood event. The fluvial flood zone represents river flooding during a 1-in-100-year flood event.

Target Methodology:

Reducing the share of population threatened by flood risk is particularly relevant for enabling sustainable development. For indicators that primarily focus on building a more just and equitable future, we present targets from the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) wherever possible. The SDGs, however, do not establish a quantitative, time-bound target for this indicator. Instead, SDG 11.5 calls for significantly reducing the number of people affected by natural disasters, including water-related disasters like flooding. Consequently, we can only indicate the direction of change required — that the population threatened by flood risk must decline.

Progress Assessment Methodology:

Due to data limitations, we deviated from our standard methodology and assessed progress using a linear interpolation between two data points (2020 and 2025).

As water stress and scarcity afflict communities and ecosystems around the world, so do crises driven by too much water. Floods are the most economically consequential natural disasters in recent history, unleashing devastating impacts for people and ecosystems: Since 1980, floods have comprised 86% of all weather-related economic damages; in 2023 alone, they accounted for nearly $130 billion in damages.

As human-driven climate change, dam failure events and other disruptions to the world’s water cycle continue to propel increased frequency and severity of these damaging flooding events, the number of people around the globe subjected to the risks associated with flooding is also growing. Approximately, 1.4 billion people were estimated to be living in a flood zone in 2025, up from 1 billion in 2000.

Although there is not a single consensus target for reducing the share of the population threatened by flood risk, U.N. Sustainable Development Goal 11.5 calls for significantly reducing the number of people affected by natural disasters, including water-related disasters such as flooding. Yet data indicates that the world is coming up short: The population threatened by flood risk is still growing, moving in the wrong direction entirely.

Key enablers and barriers to change

7328: Agricultural production in water-stressed and water-variable basins

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Baseline water stress in the dataset used to track progress for this indicator measures the ratio of total water demand to available renewable surface and groundwater supplies. Water demand includes domestic, industrial, irrigation and livestock uses. Available renewable water supplies include the impact of upstream water consumers and large dams on downstream water availability. Higher values indicate greater competition among users. Water stress is considered “high” if 40-80% of the local water supply is used to meet demands from farms, industries, power plants and households, and “extremely high” if that percentage rises above 80%. Interannual variability in the dataset used to track progress for this indicator measures the average year-to-year variability of available water supply, including both renewable surface and groundwater supplies. Higher values indicate wider variations in available supply from year to year. Interannual variability is considered “high” if it receives a score of 3-4 and “extremely high” if that score rises to between 4 and 5.

Agriculture is the largest consumer of freshwater globally, accounting for 69% of human freshwater withdrawals globally, and more than 90% in some countries in South Asia and the Middle East. But, as agricultural production expands to meet demand — and demand for water to irrigate crops thus grows too — water stress, as well as variability in water availability, is inhibiting food production.

Recent data suggests that one-quarter of the world’s crops are currently grown in areas where water supply is either highly stressed or highly unreliable. Growing crops under these conditions in both developed and developing economies poses drastic risks for farmers and for global food security.

For instance, farmlands facing high water stress and variability lack sufficient buffering capacity to weather shocks like droughts, especially as overextracted aquifers do not recharge adequately during shorter rainy seasons and farms are left without reserves during dry spells. Degraded aquatic ecosystems also lose their natural capacity to regulate microclimates, increasing climate impacts on agricultural systems and further inhibiting food production.

Although global time series data is not yet available to measure how agricultural production in water-stressed and water-variable basins is changing over time, continued monitoring is needed to understand the extent to which the world’s food system is subjected to this stress and variability. Ultimately, producing sufficient food to nourish a growing population will depend on access to sufficient water flows and stocks, as well as on policy and financing measures that incentivize the world to grow less water-intensive crops and use water as efficiently as possible.

7323: Urban population growth in water-stressed basins

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Three global datasets were used in this analysis. We used the WRI Aqueduct 4.0 Baseline Water Stress to classify river basins whose water stress is considered high or extremely high. The Global Human Settlement-Settlement Model Layer (GHS-SMOD) R2023A dataset was used to identify urban areas, and the GHS-Population Grid (GHS-POP) R2023A dataset provided a global urban population grid. Country boundaries from Natural Earth were used to produce a supplementary country-level dataset. For each available year, the urban settlement map was combined with the population grid to identify people living in urban areas. This urban population data was then overlaid with the water-stressed river basins from the Aqueduct dataset to calculate total urban population living within those basins. Since the Aqueduct water stress layer is static and represents long-term average conditions rather than annual changes, trends in this indicator reflect changes in the distribution and growth of urban populations rather than changes in water stress itself. For analyses of how water stress changes over time, the AQUASTAT SDG 6.4.2 indicator is more appropriate, as it is updated over time at the national level and captures changes in water stress conditions.

The world’s urban population is expected to increase drastically by 2050, with an estimated two-thirds of the world’s population growth expected to occur in cities. Such population growth, alongside overconsumption in developed economies, will continue to drive a rise in demand for freshwater and the services it provides, especially affecting areas where water basins are already strained and demand is close to or exceeds available water supply.

Cities must also often compete with water demand from agriculture, industry and other sectors, which can decrease water supply for urban populations, leading to disruptions, rationing, reductions in service quality or rising tariffs. Climate change will further intensify these pressures by shifting precipitation patterns and increasing the frequency and severity of droughts in some places, further reducing the reliability and availability of surface water resources. Critically, these negative effects will continue to disproportionately affect urban households living in poverty and informal settlements — people who are already exposed to additional health risks and vulnerabilities.

A 2018 study of 482 of the world’s largest cities found that 27% will face water demand exceeding surface water availability in the future. In 2025, 2.9 billion people were estimated to live in cities within water-stressed basins, up from 2 billion people in 2000. Cities unable to replenish their water basins may have to resort to expensive solutions such as building infrastructure for desalination plants, long-distance transfers or groundwater extraction — all of which come with their own trade-offs.

7341: Countries implementing stormwater runoff management measures

The quantity and timing of freshwater moving through the global hydrologic cycle is impacted significantly by the growing footprint of urbanized landscapes, characterized by surface coverage of impermeable and artificial materials like concrete.

These surfaces accelerate the rate of surface water runoff during rainfall events, resulting in higher flood risk and reducing replenishment of groundwater. And, just as urbanization impacts these flow patterns, changes to local and regional hydrological regimes — driven in large part by climate change — also impact cities. For example, increased rainfall over a city requires that city’s infrastructure to adapt to greater quantities of water over shorter periods of time.

To address the growing complexities associated with urban stormwater runoff in a changing climate, effective management is paramount. Measures to equip governments to more effectively manage these flows include, but are not limited to, use of permeable materials for infrastructure development, installation of green stormwater infrastructure such as bioswales and rain gardens, and deployment of stormwater capture and retention systems designed to slow and store runoff.

However, at the time of publishing, an up-to-date global dataset indicating the extent of adopted stormwater runoff management measures was not available.

7332: Countries with national limits or permitting systems for surface water withdrawals

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

FAO AQUASTAT country profiles contain relevant information, but compiling this data manually is not scalable, as it requires reviewing each country profile and extracting policy information individually.

To mitigate challenges around growing water scarcity and stress, governments and water managers in some countries and regions have implemented market-based, tradable permit schemes to regulate surface water withdrawals.

These systems operate similarly to market-based systems for regulating air pollution and greenhouse emissions, such as California’s cap and trade system and the US impactful sulfur dioxide allowance trading system. Governments allot water use permits to agricultural, industrial or domestic users for defined quantities of water; where trading is permitted, users who require less water than allocated may transfer or lease their unused permits to others.

Evidence from a growing number of case studies suggests that when carefully designed, these approaches can help improve the efficiency of water allocation and alleviate water stress. For example, long-standing water markets in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin continue to evolve, while recent reforms and pilot programs in China are expanding the use of water allocation and trading mechanisms to address emerging scarcity challenges.

Although there is no globally comprehensive dataset that measures the share of countries with national limits or permitting systems for surface water withdrawals, available evidence suggests that, to date, deployment of this policy tool has been relatively limited. Given the potential of permitting systems to improve water allocation outcomes, however, there is merit to tracking continued uptake around the world. It is critical that these schemes be integrated into policy carefully so as not to undermine prior customary tenure and future ability to reallocate water resources in response to changing environmental and socioeconomic needs.

7327: Legal protection of environmental flows

In many parts of the world, legislation that protects environmental flows has proven to be an effective strategy for maintaining sufficient such flows. Although it takes different forms, such legislation generally focuses on protecting or mandating the provision of a certain level of environmental flows, often in historically unregulated river ecosystems that are at risk of, or already suffering from, overabstraction.

There is no globally comprehensive dataset that measures the number of countries that have instated legal protections to maintain or increase environmental flows, but case studies from around the world suggest uptake of this policy approach by a diverse array of governments.

For instance, in response to the European Union’s formative 2000 Water Framework Directive, which acknowledges the importance of environmental flow regimes, France, Spain and Romania have embedded environmental flow requirements into national law.

Governments in other countries including Australia, Canada, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, the United States and Zambia have also all legislated some form of environmental flow regulations. Cases vary from South Africa’s wide-reaching National Water Act, which requires specifically earmarked reserves of water for sustaining ecological function across the country, to regulatory approaches in the United States, where environmental flow requirements are often enforced through minimum flow standards at the state level.

Ultimately, in light of the proven benefits of these arrangements, increased uptake of these legislative tools, as well as further research and trial of similar policy mechanisms like water footprint caps, will be instrumental to ensure sufficient levels of environmental flows for people and nature.

7325: Transboundary basin area under an operational water cooperation arrangement

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Data was extracted from the UN Water platform by filtering for SDG indicator 6.5.2: Percentage of transboundary area with an operational arrangement for water cooperation within a country (EG_TBA_H2CO, EG_TBA_H2COAQ and EG_TBA_H2CORL). National level data on surface water basins and aquifers and operational agreements is stored and reported by the UN Economic Commission for Europe and the U.N. Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). If a country lacks spatial datasets on water basin and aquifer extent, several datasets can be used, including the Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme, Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database and UNESCO International Groundwater Resources Assessment Center (IGRAC). If national data on cooperation arrangements is lacking, U.N. Member States can address data gaps using the International Freshwater Treaties Database (Oregon State University), which contains information on agreements up to 2008, or the International River Basin Organization Database, which includes 120 organizations, and provides detailed information on governance, decision-making and groundwater inclusion. If a region is part of both a basin and an aquifer with operational arrangements, it is double-counted to reflect cooperation on both. If an arrangement covers only a part of a basin or aquifer, only that specific area is counted in the calculation. Additional information on the monitoring methodology for SDG Indicator 6.5.2 is available here.

Globally, nearly 280 river basins, corresponding to 60% of the world’s freshwater supplies, cross the political boundaries of at least two countries and are thus considered transboundary waters. A significant proportion of the world’s population also lives within a transboundary surface water basin and is vulnerable to harm from unsustainable transboundary management policies.

A lack of transboundary cooperation on water management can have a variety of negative socioeconomic and environmental consequences. For example, significant extraction of surface or groundwater upstream can lead to shortages downstream, impacting the longitudinal connectivity of inland water ecosystems, biodiversity and ecosystem services, and, in turn, people’s livelihoods.

Under U.N. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6.5, countries are expected to develop frameworks and structures for cooperation over shared surface waters and groundwaters, including river basin organization meetings, data exchanges and joint management plans. While the data collected under SDG monitoring efforts has limitations, including the inability to capture informal arrangements and measure subnational cooperation, it does provide a general sense of the state of global transboundary water cooperation.

Between 2017 and 2023, the most recent year of data available, the share of transboundary basin areas with a formal agreement (treaty, convention or other) between neighboring countries that provides a framework for cooperation remained relatively stable at 59%. Efforts must also be made to examine the extent to which these agreements are enforced and upheld, which is not measured by this indicator.

7343: Water use efficiency

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Data was collected from AQUASTAT by applying specific filters under the category “Water use” and the subcategory “Pressure on water resources.” The indicators selected include Total Water Use Efficiency, Irrigated Agriculture Water Use Efficiency, Services Water Use Efficiency and Industrial Water Use Efficiency.

Demand for the goods and services that freshwater provides is growing swiftly: By one estimate, water withdrawals around the world have increased almost twice as fast as global population growth. But, given the limitations of the world’s sustainable freshwater supply, enhancing the efficiency of how we use water for agriculture, industry and other services is vital.

Improving water use efficiency reduces the amount of surface and groundwater that is withdrawn for human activities, leaving flows available for aquatic ecosystems, reducing habitat disruption, improving water quality in downstream ecosystems and preventing further degradation, such as waterlogging and salinization, that affects environmental health and people’s well-being. Enhancing efficiency also offers multiple co-benefits, such as reducing emissions from water pumping and distribution, improving soil health and boosting resilience to drought and other climate impacts. It also leads to higher crop yields, better food security and increased economic productivity within the agricultural industry.

It is thus promising that, over the last two decades, the world has seen an increase in water use efficiency, measured by the monetary value added per volume of water withdrawn. The most recent available data shows that global water use efficiency increased from $13 per cubic meter in 2000 to $21 per cubic meter in 2021. Yet, as there are wide differences in water use efficiency across the world (see map view), interventions to enhance efficiency in particularly water-stressed regions, including the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, should be prioritized.

There is no-one-size-fits-all approach to achieving such gains around the world, but there is evidence that agricultural interventions — including investments in water-efficient irrigation systems and application of mulching and cover crops — water reuse and reclamation in industrial processes, and water pricing mechanisms that incentivize efficient household consumption — can yield tangible improvements.

7344: Irrigated agriculture water use efficiency

As irrigated agriculture accounts for 69% of freshwater withdrawals, improving water use efficiency in irrigated agriculture (crops, livestock and other uses) is essential to reducing pressures on the water supply.

Irrigated water use efficiency (IWUE) in agriculture is measured by value added in U.S. dollars per volume of water used in cubic meters across irrigated agricultural land. IWUE has shown continuous growth, more than tripling between 2000 and 2022. More recently, it increased by 25% between 2018 and 2022.

Existing data, though insufficient to make robust comparisons, indicates variations in IWUE across regions and countries, reflecting differences in irrigation practices, crop types and water management strategies. However, these differences do not show clear regional patterns. For instance, in 2023 the Netherlands had the highest IWUE at 35, while New Zealand stands at 4.4, Sierra Leone at 3.4, Germany at 2.4, Saudi Arabia at 0.99 and India at 0.65.

To further increase efficiency, efforts should include promoting sustainable agricultural practices, including water-efficient irrigation systems; developing more drought-resistant crops; implementing policies and incentives for water conservation in agriculture; and scaling finance for such measures. Equitable and effective water governance structures are also necessary for implementing and sustaining efficient water use practices, ensuring fair allocation of water resources and promoting stakeholder participation in water management decisions.

7450: Water pricing, as measured by the average global water tariff

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Global averages were calculated cumulatively by year using city-level weighting across 2,813 cities. Since country coverage varies substantially (1-213 cities per country), the results reflect the available data rather than full global representation.

Some water management experts believe that water resources should be strategically priced in order to incentivize more efficient water usage. Water pricing or tariff schemes involve setting water prices that better internalize the costs that governments and utilities incur to supply sufficient water quantity and quality to agricultural, industrial and domestic users.

There is much evidence that when this price is set close to or at the marginal cost of delivering a unit of water, water use efficiency improves: In other words, because users are incentivized to only pay for the water that they truly need, they typically reduce inefficient, nonessential water uses that they do not value highly.

Historically, water prices, particularly in developed countries, have been understood to be too low to encourage reductions in nonessential consumption. Nonetheless, it is encouraging that the average price of water tariff programs implemented around the world is increasing over time: for instance, the average water price for water deliveries of up to 6 cubic meters per month increased from nearly $4 per cubic meter in 2022 to $8 per cubic meter in 2025, while the price for water deliveries of up to 15 cubic meters per month grew from $10 per cubic meter to $22 per cubic meter over that same period. In one notable success story, a water tariff enacted to reflect the growing value and scarcity of water in Singapore has led to sustained efficiency improvements, with the government continuing to steadily increase the tariff price over time.

There are many ways in which water managers and governments can ensure that prices on water do not disproportionately impact communities living in poverty. Increasing block tariffs — pricing structures in which water users pay much lower rates for a certain quantity of water deemed necessary to meet basic services, and thereafter pay higher rates on additional withdrawals — can help to ensure that poorer users are not priced out of water services. Other proposals aim to make water pricing more equitable, such as rebates to cover water costs for low-income households and “lifeline” water allocations provided at little or no cost to ensure access to basic water services. Despite the importance of monitoring the extent to which water pricing mechanisms around the world meet key equity criteria, however, there is no available data to do so at this time.

7338: Subsidies or incentives for efficient water use, as measured by the number of active environmentally beneficial subsidies and payments related to water tracked by the OECD

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The Policy Instruments for the Environment database maintained by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development deems the following kinds of water-related subsidies and payments to be environmentally beneficial: Sustainable Rural Water Use and Infrastructure Program, Water for the Environment Special Account, On-Farm Emergency Water Infrastructure Rebate Scheme, Improving Great Artesian Basin Drought Resilience, subsidies to local authorities for water and wastewater management, soil remediation funds, conservation and riparian tax credits, regional water efficiency rebate programs, payments for environmental and ecosystem services (including schemes in China, the Gran Chaco region in South America, Celica municipality in Ecuador and forest services), flood damage removal and prevention support, multiple State Environmental Fund programs in the Czech Republic, aquatic environment action plans, agricultural and forestry support funds, water expertise and innovation grants, wetland tax exemptions, environmental technology promotion, incentives for sustainable livestock and dairy, hydrological infrastructure support, environmental protection programs, clean water funds, greenhouse gas research initiatives, international programs such as the LIFE (L’Instrument Financier pour l'Environnement) programme, municipal infrastructure subsidies, renewable energy incentives and tax depreciation schemes, value added tax exemptions, education and community greening grants, groundwater and watershed subsidies, streambank restoration programs, numerous water-related tax credits and deductions, wetland mitigation banking, watershed service payments, and forest environmental service payment schemes.

While water pricing incentivizes efficiency by raising the cost of water withdrawals, subsidies are another tool with a proven track record in protecting water resources and safeguarding environmental flows.

By lowering the cost associated with water use efficiency practices, these policy mechanisms — which include things like subsidies for implementing drip irrigation systems in agriculture and financial support to increase rainwater harvesting systems — can accelerate the uptake of water-efficient technologies and practices, thereby reducing withdrawals and helping to maintain freshwater flows and stocks.

The Policy Instruments for the Environment database maintained by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) tracks the number of active environmentally beneficial subsidies and payments related to water implemented in countries around the world. While not every subsidy tracked under this program is directly aimed at incentivizing efficiency in water use, this dataset serves as a reasonable proxy for efficiency-oriented water subsidies. Environmentally beneficial water subsidies aim to ease harmful pressures on freshwater systems, primarily by reducing overuse and inefficiency. The figures that the OECD reports each year have grown over time, increasing from 16 reported programs in 2000 to 56 reported programs by 2025.

7335: Countries with publicly available surface or groundwater monitoring data

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

Groundwater data was collected from the International Groundwater Resources Assessment Center and surface water data from the Global Runoff Data Centre. A country is counted if it reports to either source. The total is then divided by the 210 countries on Systems Change Lab’s supported country list to calculate the reported proportion.

Managing water resources and minimizing disruptions to water quantity and timing, particularly in the midst of a changing climate, requires an understanding of the amount and spatial distribution of water flows and stocks and how these variables are changing over time. It is thus paramount that meteorological, water resource and environmental agencies prioritize the development and continuous updating of ground- and satellite-based monitoring systems that can measure surface and groundwater resources in real time and inform resultant water policy decision-making.

As of 2025, 70% of countries publicly reported surface water data, groundwater data or both, demonstrating widespread global efforts to track these critical freshwater stocks. Tracking whether this share is growing over time will be essential to determine whether countries are increasingly prioritizing monitoring efforts.

7337: Countries with managed aquifer recharge frameworks or programs

Historical Data Methodology and Challenges:

The total is then divided by the 210 countries on Systems Change Lab’s supported country list to calculate the reported proportion. Entries with missing values for year of operation (coded as -9999) were excluded, while those with missing shutdown dates were retained. This approach avoided the unintended removal of potentially active projects and resulted in a total of 761 projects across 66 distinct countries for the team’s calculations. Excluding all entries without shutdown dates would significantly reduce the sample and introduce bias, as it would also require restricting the dataset to projects with known closure dates — where the most recent recorded shutdown occurs in 2014 — effectively leaving no observations available by 2021. The most recent year for which data is available in this dataset is 2021.

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) refers to the purposeful recharge of water to aquifers in response to declining groundwater supplies. There are different types of MAR approaches and technologies, but the technique generally involves replenishing subsurface aquifers to combat groundwater depletion after overabstraction or during periods of water stress and drought, sustain groundwater-dependent ecosystems and biodiversity and improve water quality through increased infiltration. 

Around the world, MAR techniques are being increasingly adopted, with evidence to demonstrate strong returns and success in sustaining groundwater resources when managed effectively. According to the most recently available data, 26% of the world’s countries had established MAR programs or frameworks by 2020, up from 20% in 2000. Some countries, including the United States, China and Australia, have implemented dozens of unique MAR programs.

7326: Dams that consider climate risks in operations

When constructed and operated with stringent safeguards in place to prevent damaging ecosystem degradation, existing hydropower dams can play a vital role in delivering clean, firm renewable power while also providing benefits for storage, diversion and regulation of water for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses.

However, dams can also threaten freshwater flows and stocks, resulting in unintended and adverse consequences for water quantity and timing. For instance, while structural flood control measures such as levees and channelization may reduce flooding locally in the short term, in some cases they can increase downstream flood risks or lead to more severe impacts when infrastructure fails. Furthermore, the disconnection of rivers from their floodplains, often caused by dams and levees that regulate water flows — particularly high-flow events — can actually increase downstream flood risk while reducing the goods and services provided by fertile, functional floodplains and resilience to climate change.

The growing impacts of climate change are only exacerbating the threats that existing dams can pose to freshwater quantity and timing. One study demonstrated that more frequent heavy rains in the United States are increasing the likelihood of dam failure events, subjecting greater numbers of people and ecosystems to flooding. Yet, as traditional dam safety management assumes stationary climate conditions, many existing dams are not equipped to manage these growing climate risks.

It will thus be increasingly important to equip existing dams with updated operating rules or climate risk screening processes that account for a nonstationary and changing climate. Such measures may include adjusting existing flood estimation procedures and tailoring reservoir release schedules to incorporate changes to flow regimes; however, to date there is no comprehensive global dataset measuring the number and location of dams where such rules have already been implemented.

7331: Countries with national flood risk management strategies aligned with climate projections

As the climate crisis continues to increase the frequency and severity of flooding events, the number of people around the globe subjected to the risks associated with flooding is growing, too. National flood risk management strategies that incorporate up-to-date assessments of climate impacts are critical for reducing these risks, including the loss of lives, livelihoods and property. 

The contents of these strategies can vary depending on national needs and context: for instance, Japan, an island nation prone to typhoons and heavy rain, has developed a robust flood management strategy that responds to changing climate impacts and includes an advanced flood warning and evacuation contingency system, regulations for flood-proofing existing urban infrastructure, and development of robust hazard maps.

Despite the importance of aligning flood risk management plans with predicted impacts from a changing climate, no globally comprehensive dataset exists to measure which countries have done so. One dataset from the EU implies that the majority of EU countries have incorporated recent climate projections into national flood risk management plans, but more effort is needed to understand broader global trends.

Other shift Other shifts needed to transform the system

Effectively halt conversion and degradation across freshwater ecosystems

Converting and degrading freshwater ecosystems undermines their ability to deliver critical services to people and nature. Effectively halting this destruction is crucial to prevent continued biodiversity loss, preserve climate mitigation benefits and support sustainable development for communities around the world.

Restore freshwater ecosystems

Restoring freshwater ecosystems is vital to limiting global warming, adapting to climate change and reversing biodiversity loss. Healthy rivers, lakes and wetlands — including salt marshes, mangroves and peatlands — are fundamental to planetary health and human well-being.

Sharply reduce water pollution and improve water quality

Freshwater quality is declining worldwide, reducing access to clean water and increasing pressure on biodiversity. Rapid action is needed to curb human activities driving water pollution and secure a long-term supply of clean water for all.

Ensure equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water, sanitation and hygiene for all

Equitable and affordable access to clean water and safe sanitation and hygiene services are essential for human health, ecosystem protection and climate resilience. However, billions of people, particularly those with the fewest resources, are still being left behind.

Halt the overexploitation of wild, freshwater species and ensure sustainable use

Freshwater species play vital roles in keeping water clean, cycling nutrients and underpinning human food systems. Yet they are disappearing at alarming rates — a crisis that threatens to unravel ecosystems, weaken the planet’s ability to provide clean water and undermine human well-being.