While measuring electric vehicle (EV) sales is important to understanding how EV adoption has grown, the ultimate measure of how well EVs have displaced their fossil fuel-powered counterparts is the share of EVs among cars on the road.
Exponential change is occurring in the deployment of battery electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) on the road. Over the last five years, the share of EVs in the global LDV fleet rose by an average of 54 percent per year. Between 2021 and 2022 it almost doubled — a meaningful improvement relative to recent trends.
Rapidly growing sales volumes in the key markets of China, the European Union, and now the United States have led to greater overall EV numbers, with combined total EV numbers in these three major markets rising from a little under 1 million on the road in 2016, to 16 million on the road by 2022. Still, the actual share of EVs is quite low: 1.5% in 2022, which adds up to 18 million electric cars on roads around the world. Continued exponential change will be needed to reach 20–40% by 2030.
As with light-duty EV sales, the share of EVs in the light-duty fleet will likely follow an S-curve, especially as the economics and range of EVs improve and as charging becomes more available. But because new car sales do not necessarily correspond with equal removal of old cars from the market, the share of EVs on the road may lag well behind increases in sales. As of now, the indicator remains in the emergence phase of an S-curve, and it is difficult to determine the trajectory of change at such an early point. Global progress made toward this near-term target is off track based on our assessment of the literature and consultations with experts.