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Transport

Transition to zero-carbon cars, trucks and buses

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger cars, trucks and buses made up almost three-quarters of total transport emissions in 2020, underlining the importance of a rapid transition away from fossil fueled-powered vehicles.

Passenger cars are on the way to decarbonization, but they need a push to keep us on track for a 1.5 degrees C world.

The world is on the cusp of a transformation in motor vehicles, with sales of electric vehicles (EVs) skyrocketing in 2022 in the key markets of China, Europe, and parts of the United States. If this trend continues, it will have broad ramifications for the global automobile industry and global transport sector emissions.

According to Bloomberg NEF, passenger EVs are projected to displace close to a million barrels of oil per day by 2025, with global gasoline demand projected to peak the following year. Under this scenario, the EV share of total passenger vehicle sales is projected to reach 23% by 2025, up from 10% in 2022. But more action is needed if sales are to reach 75-95% by 2030 — the range compatible with 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) climate goals.

Timeline showing Key milestones in the exponential growth of electric vehicle sales compared to the EV share of global new passenger vehicle sales

Progress on zero-emission trucks and buses needs a jolt, especially outside of China and Europe.

Progress on decarbonizing truck transport is not as advanced as it is with passenger cars, but there are promising signs. Several electric heavy-duty truck models are already commercially available or in an advanced stage of development, and electric medium-duty vehicles are starting to be rolled out in many corporate fleets.

Long-haul, heavy-duty trucks will be the most challenging class to decarbonize. Battery energy density for these models is currently a limiting factor, and recharge times affect corporate profitability. However, the newest trucks can travel 300 kilometers (km) on a single charge, and additional battery technology improvements are estimated to enable a 40 tonne truck to drive 400 km on a single charge by 2025, suggesting that there could be rapid technological change in even the heaviest vehicles.

Though hydrogen fuel cell models do not share the energy density challenges faced by battery electric models, they are still in the early stages of development and renewable hydrogen continues to be prohibitively expensive. In addition, hydrogen as a transport fuel must contend with the significant efficiency losses incurred through the production and transportation process — losses that are not a factor for battery electric models. Progress will require investments in hydrogen supply chains in addition to refueling infrastructure.

Progress on decarbonizing buses remains extremely uneven, with very high sales in China pushing the global sales share of zero-carbon models up significantly. The United States has seen a large increase in the past year thanks to a major deal for manufacturer SEA Electric to convert 10,000 of Midwest Transit Equipment’s buses to electric over the next five years. In the rest of the world, zero-carbon buses have yet to make large inroads. 

Data Insights

What targets are most important to reach in the future?

Systems Change Lab identifies 6 targets toward which to track progress. Click a chart to explore the data.

What factors may prevent or enable change?

Systems Change Lab identifies 9 factors that may impede or help spur progress toward targets. Click a chart to explore the data.

Progress toward targets

Systems Change Lab tracks progress toward 6 targets. target. Explore the data and learn about key actions supporting systems change.

Number of displaced internal combustion engine workers who re-gained employment

As zero-emission vehicles gain market share and internal combustion engine vehicle production declines, workers specializing in internal combustion engines will need to reorient their skills to electric engines.

As zero-emission vehicles gain market share and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production declines, workers specializing in internal combustion engines will need to reorient their skills to electric vehicle (EV) components and batteries or to other areas of the economy.

A report on the future of the industry in the European Union (EU) estimates that retraining will be needed for around 2.4 million workers. About 1.6 million of these will remain at their current places of employment, with some changes. Around 610,000 workers will remain in the industry but in slightly different roles or companies, and 225,000 workers will need training for entirely different roles and need to be relocated to new jobs and companies.

There is currently no publicly available data on the percent of workers who have shifted from ICE vehicle production to other jobs in the EV industry or the wider economy, nor is there a quantitative target for 2030 or 2050. As ICE vehicles still dominate global sales and fleets, it is reasonable to expect the job shift to be quite small at this point. However, a just transition requires efforts to promote training and requalification so that workers in the auto industry remain gainfully employed, albeit likely with new jobs or in new industries.

Share of electric vehicles in light-duty vehicle sales

Battery electric vehicles made up 10% of new car sales in 2022. Global electric vehicle demand will need to continue its exponential growth in the next few years to reach 75-95% of light-duty vehicle sales by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

The share of battery electric vehicles (EVs) in global light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales has begun to take off, reaching 10% in 2022. This represents over 7 million electric cars sold. Over the past five years, light-duty EV sales have grown at an average of 65% per year. In 2022, the share of EVs in LDV sales increased 63% — a meaningful improvement relative to recent trends. 

Much more progress will be needed to reach 75–95% of LDV sales by 2030, especially in developing economies, where sales are significantly lower than in developed countries, but EV sales are in the breakthrough stage of an S-curve and will likely continue to accelerate in the coming years. Given the high likelihood for continued rapid exponential change due to favorable long-term cost trends and improvements in the range and availability of charging infrastructure, progress made toward reaching this near-term target is categorized as on track.

Sales are not even across all geographies. EV sales in China reached 29% of total new car sales in 2022, while the European Union saw a 25% share and the United States saw an 8% share. In other countries, sales remain low. To avoid a two-tiered global market, it is important that developed markets and development banks provide assistance to developing countries to grow their EV markets and charging infrastructure.

Share of electric vehicles in the light-duty vehicle fleet

Battery electric vehicles made up 1.5% of the global light-duty fleet in 2022. Although this share has been increasing exponentially, it will need to grow even faster to reach 20–40% by 2030.

While measuring electric vehicle (EV) sales is important to understanding how EV adoption has grown, the ultimate measure of how well EVs have displaced their fossil fuel-powered counterparts is the share of EVs among cars on the road. 

Exponential change is occurring in the deployment of battery electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) on the road. Over the last five years, the share of EVs in the global LDV fleet rose by an average of 54 percent per year. Between 2021 and 2022 it almost doubled — a meaningful improvement relative to recent trends.

Rapidly growing sales volumes in the key markets of China, the European Union, and now the United States have led to greater overall EV numbers, with combined total EV numbers in these three major markets rising from a little under 1 million on the road in 2016, to 16 million on the road by 2022. Still, the actual share of EVs is quite low: 1.5% in 2022, which adds up to 18 million electric cars on roads around the world. Continued exponential change will be needed to reach 20–40% by 2030. 

As with light-duty EV sales, the share of EVs in the light-duty fleet will likely follow an S-curve, especially as the economics and range of EVs improve and as charging becomes more available. But because new car sales do not necessarily correspond with equal removal of old cars from the market, the share of EVs on the road may lag well behind increases in sales. As of now, the indicator remains in the emergence phase of an S-curve, and it is difficult to determine the trajectory of change at such an early point. Global progress made toward this near-term target is off track based on our assessment of the literature and consultations with experts.

Share of electric vehicles in two- and three-wheeler sales

The shares of electric vehicles in the sales of two- and three-wheelers hit a record in 2022, reaching 49% of total sales. Things are moving in the right direction, but the pace of change is currently insufficient.

Electrification of two- and three-wheelers is already underway and shares that are electric are substantially higher than those in cars, vans and trucks. The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in two- and three-wheeler sales increased from 36% in 2019 to 49% in 2022.

Electric two- and three-wheelers are the types of innovative technologies that generally follow an S-curve. But sales of electric two- and three-wheelers are in a later stage of an S-curve, during which further acceleration is less likely. Indeed, the best fit for the past five years of data for this indicator is a linear trendline. 

For this reason, we assess progress taking into account the linear trendline, which shows that the indicator is making promising progress but off track. This assessment is corroborated by BloombergNEF’s assessment of progress, which finds that electric two- and three-wheelers are almost but not yet on track for a net-zero emissions trajectory.

Share of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles in medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle sales

The share of battery electric vehicles and fuel-cell electric vehicles in medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sales reached 2.7% in 2022, but needs to reach 30% by 2030 and 99% by 2050.

Medium- and heavy-duty trucks contributed about 23% of global transport emissions in 2021. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) are expected to taper off more slowly than those from light-duty vehicles (LDVs). This is mainly because most big trucks continue to use diesel fuel, as electrifying HDVs is more difficult than electrifying LDVs. 

Moving large vehicles requires much more energy than small vehicles, and batteries must therefore be larger to supply this energy. Larger batteries are heavier, however, and there is a trade-off between the weight of the battery and the weight the truck can haul. In addition, long-haul trucks have different requirements for range and charging speed than passenger cars.

Increasing battery density is expected to alleviate some of these issues, and fuel cells are also considered to electrify heavy-duty transport due to their higher energy densities. However, due to these obstacles to electrification, global GHG emissions from the HDV fleet are projected to be larger than those of the LDV fleet by 2025.

Global sales of zero-carbon medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) have risen to 2.7% of total sales in 2022 — more than double the amount of combined sales in 2021 and a meaningful improvement relative to recent trends. But still, they remain low relative to other categories. Of total electric MHDV sales, 85% happened in China alone. However, European sales increased by 80% from 2021 to 2022, as automakers began rolling out new models and major logistics companies began purchasing electric heavy-duty trucks. Europe now accounts for 25% of global sales.

Share of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles in bus sales

The global share of zero-carbon bus sales was just under 4% in 2022, driven largely by China. Sales in countries around the world will need to grow considerably if the share of zero-emission bus sales is to reach 60% by 2030.

Buses emitted about 6% of total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from transport in 2021. Switching to electric buses eliminates those emissions, as well as harmful tailpipe emissions such as fine particulate matter, black carbon, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). 

The global share of zero-carbon bus sales has fluctuated, up from just 0.11% in 2010 to 3.8% in 2022. Global sales of zero-carbon buses rocketed from 2,000 in 2010 to 63,000 in 2022. There was a dip from 2018 to 2021 due to decreased sales in China before progress picked up again in 2022. Before this dip, the total global fleet increased more than 10-fold between 2014 and 2018 due to strong Chinese demand stimulated by early and continued support, including substantial purchasing and operation subsidies.

Some other countries have seen large electric bus sales shares, including Finland, where 75% of bus sales in 2022 were electric. Therefore, although the share of bus sales is headed in the wrong direction based on the average rate of change over the last five years, it is possible that concerted efforts could turn this trend around and accelerate progress to meet the 2030 goal of 60%.

Enablers and barriers

We also monitor change by tracking a critical set of 9 factors factor that can impede or help spur progress toward targets. Explore the data and learn about key actions supporting systems change.

Jurisdictions with internal combustion engine phase-out targets

Globally, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales should cease by 2035 to be at least 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) compatible. There were 22 jurisdictions with ICE phase-out targets in 2022.

Setting a target year for phasing out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is a vital policy measure for achieving road transport decarbonization. Globally, ICE vehicle sales should cease by 2035 at the latest to be 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) compatible; this implies that in developed countries, they should stop even earlier.

Having an ICE vehicle phase-out target date provides investment certainty to automakers, creating an incentive to speed their transition to zero-emission models. It also informs the decisions of consumers who are considering their next new car purchase, since the decline in ICE models’ resale value will compound as the phase-out date nears.

To ensure that the transport sector is rapidly decarbonized across all countries, it is also critical to address the issue of polluting used vehicles being exported from wealthy countries to meet the demand for vehicles in less wealthy countries. This can be done through regulation that bans such exports, though few developed countries have such regulation currently, or through import bans, which are in place in many less wealthy countries.

There were 22 jurisdictions with ICE phase-out targets in 2022, up from 18 in 2021. A few countries’ plans stand out. Norway, long a leader in electric vehicle (EV) sales, has a world-leading target of 2025 that it may now achieve by the end of 2022. Other national goals, like Spain’s 2040 target, miss the 2035 deadline and should be brought forward. This is already happening in many countries — Canada, for example, recently moved its deadline from 2040 to 2035.

Countries with zero-emission electric vehicle sales mandates

Mandating that automakers sell a specific percentage of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) or generate a specific number of ZEV “credits” is a useful method of accelerating electric vehicle uptake. As of 2022, 46 countries and 1 region have these mandates.

Mandating that automakers sell a specific percentage of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) or generate a specific number of ZEV "credits" is a useful supply-side method of accelerating electric vehicle (EV) uptake.

The first ZEV mandate was adopted in California in 1990, well before ZEVs were readily available, with the intention of spurring innovation and ZEV manufacturing. It did not manage to spur the necessary cost and performance improvements in ZEVs during the initial phase and was subsequently weakened considerably, but it has seen greater success in recent years.

A Chinese version of this policy was implemented in 2018 — a point in time when federal purchase subsidies were starting to be rolled back, and after a robust local ZEV manufacturing industry had already been established. In the European Union, a voluntary scheme to encourage automakers to produce ZEVs was established in 2021 to complement and strengthen its updated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions standards.

As of 2022, 46 countries and 1 region have ZEV sales mandates.

Jurisdictions with financial incentives for zero-emission vehicles

While the upfront costs of purchasing zero-emission vehicles remain higher than their fossil fuel counterparts, financial incentives can expedite their uptake. Many countries have used these to great effect.

While the upfront costs of purchasing zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) remain higher than their fossil fuel counterparts, financial incentives can expedite their uptake. Many countries have used these to great effect.

Norway has had such incentives in place since the early 1990s, when the purchase/import tax was removed for electric vehicles (EVs), and deployed a cascade of further incentives over the following three decades. The result is an astonishing pace of transition, with Norway set to achieve 100% EV sales well before its world-leading 2025 target date, and as early as the end of 2022.

Not all countries have the resources available to provide such incentives, however. In this instance, alternative approaches to reducing road transport emissions should be considered with support from wealthier countries. This could include expanding the availability of public transport and electrifying existing public transport vehicles.

An additional approach that could help to fast-track this transition is the establishment of trade-in programs, which offer payments for trading in older, more polluting vehicle models for zero-emission alternatives.

No comprehensive global data is available for this indicator.

Number of public charging stations

The number of public charging stations has been growing at a staggering pace over the past decade, more than doubling every two years. In total, there were around 0.9 million fast, and nearly 1.8 million slow, publicly available charging points in the world in 2021.

A key precondition for the widespread deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) is a large and reliable charging infrastructure network. Although most EV charging takes place at home, publicly available charging infrastructure is necessary for longer distance travel.

The total number of public charging stations has increased substantially over the past decade, with the number of chargers more than doubling between 2018 and 2020 (from 0.5 million to 1.2 million) and then again between 2020 and 2022 (1.2 million to 2.6 million).

Almost two-thirds of all installed chargers are found in China. The United States and South Korea make up 6% each, followed by Norway with almost 5% and France and Germany with around 3% each. In the majority of countries, however, the number of public charging stations remains very limited.

Particularly for longer distances, EV drivers want fast chargers that can deliver full power in about 30 minutes. The share of fast chargers has been increasing more rapidly than that of regular chargers and reached about one-third of all chargers in 2021, up from just 15% in 2015.

In total, there were around 0.9 million fast, and nearly 1.8 million slow, publicly available charging points in the world in 2021, making up 2.7 million in total.

Number of jobs in electric vehicle manufacturing and supply chains

As of 2019, there were around 1.3 million jobs working on electric vehicles around the world — 10% of total auto sector employment — including 460,000 jobs in manufacturing and 850,000 jobs in electric vehicle supply chains.

Workers from a variety of educational and employment backgrounds are employed in the electric vehicle (EV) industry — including scientists who conduct research in electric drive technology, manufacturing workers who build vehicles, and automotive maintenance technicians who repair vehicles. Most of these occupations require specialized training or work experience in EV manufacturing and maintenance.

Manufacturing electric vehicles requires less labor and fewer components than combustion engine vehicles, and therefore fewer direct jobs. However, studies in the United States and Europe have shown that growth in electricity infrastructure for EVs and clean fuel supply for hydrogen vehicles is likely to dwarf job losses in manufacturing jobs.

All new employment opportunities should provide people with decent work, meaning that these jobs should offer fair compensation, safe working conditions, equal opportunities, and social protections. These jobs must be free of forced and child labor and provide employees the right to organize or discuss work-related issues.

As of 2019, there were around 1.3 million jobs working on EVs around the world (10% of total auto sector employment), including 460,000 jobs in manufacturing and 850,000 jobs in EV supply chains.

Number of human rights allegations in critical minerals mining

The Transitions Minerals Tracker tracks allegations of human rights abuses related to mining projects and recorded 65 alleged violations in 2022.

The clean energy transition is expected to bring a massive increase in the use and mining of critical minerals such as cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, zinc and rare earths. It is estimated that under a net-zero scenario, the market for critical minerals will grow from about 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2020 to over 40 Mt in 2050, with demand for lithium increasing 100-fold by 2050.

The human rights violations related to mining projects in general and critical mineral mining in particular are well documented.

The Transitions Minerals Tracker surveys allegations of human rights abuses in the mining of lithium, copper, cobalt, zinc, manganese and nickel. It records allegations against 51 indicators grouped in six categories: environmental impacts, impacts on the local community and attacks against civil society organizations, impacts on workers, governance and transparency, security issues and conflict zones, and issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The database noted just 11 allegations in 2010, but that number has grown as mining for critical minerals has increased. There were 65 recorded alleged violations in 2022.

The number of allegations of human rights violations in critical mineral extraction is one indicator of equity during the energy transition. Similar indicators focusing on one or more clean energy technologies also exist, but this is considered a better proxy because critical minerals are required for most clean energy technologies.

As the energy transition unfolds, progress on this indicator will be measured by a decreasing number of new allegations of human rights violations.

Average cost of a new light-duty electric vehicle

The high upfront cost of an electric vehicle currently presents the single biggest barrier to realizing widespread turnover of fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles. The average price of a light-duty electric car needs to come down dramatically this decade.

The shares of electric light-duty vehicles need to continue to grow dramatically this decade, maintaining strong adoption rates through to the mid-century. Currently, the share of electric vehicles (EVs) in global light-duty vehicle sales stands at 10%, which needs to reach up to 75-95% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

Although consumers are beginning to prioritize the environment in their daily purchasing decisions, the adoption of EVs remains relatively low. There are multiple challenges, including the availability of charging infrastructure and the range of EVs, but consumers often cite the high purchase price of new EVs as the single-biggest barrier to change.

To realize change at the scale necessary, the average price of light-duty EVs will need to continue to decrease to become as cheap as or cheaper at the point of purchase as internal combustion engine vehicles.. Costs will primarily be driven down through increased deployment and technology innovation, which can be enabled by policies and regulations increasing sales. There is no globally consistent and freely available data covering the mean price of EVs. However, battery costs make up about 30-60% of total EV prices, and the costs of battery packs fell globally from $1,220/kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2010 to $132/kWh in 2021. Prices went up in 2022 for the first time in over a decade due to a supply crunch in necessary components, but have already begun to decline again in 2023.

Average cost of a new medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle

The total cost to own and operate electric medium- or heavy-duty vehicles is approaching that of their diesel counterparts. This trend needs to continue to help drive a transition to electric MHDVs.

The sales of electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles need to grow at unprecedented speeds in this decade, maintaining strong adoption rates through to the mid-century. Currently, the share of electric vehicles (EVs) in global medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sales stands at only 2.7%, which needs to reach up to 30% by 2030 and nearly 100% by 2050.

The three main factors that will influence the transition to EVs are: (1) the cost to own and operate medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles, (2) the availability of electric trucks, and (3) the charging network that will enable business operations to continue without major disruption or change. The total cost of owning and operating an electric heavy truck is approaching parity with fossil fueled counterparts. In Europe, for example, electric trucks should be as cheap to own and operate as diesel trucks by 2026. Electric and fuel cell trucks are becoming much more available–from 2021 to 2023, the number of models available increased from 255 to 418. Finally, the charging network continues to grow at significant rates, although the larger batteries in electric trucks require charging stations specifically designed for heavy-duty vehicles.

To realize change at the scale necessary, the average cost of medium- and heavy-duty EVs will need to fall dramatically this decade. Costs will be driven down through increased deployment and technology innovation, which can be enabled by policies and regulations increasing sales. There is no globally consistent and freely available data covering the mean price of EVs. However, the costs of battery packs fell globally from $1,220/kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2010 to $132/kWh in 2021. Prices went up in 2022 for the first time in over a decade due to a supply crunch in necessary components, but have already begun to decline again in 2023.

Cost of battery storage

Though the 2021 battery price was down nearly tenfold from that of 2010, an increase in 2022 demonstrated the importance of ample supply of minerals and components. Prices began to decline again in 2023.

Batteries are a key component of electric vehicles (EV). This indicator tracks the price of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries — a relatively advanced and widely used battery technology in EVs.

Li-ion battery pack prices have been declining sharply since 2010, at a rate that surpasses the cost decreases of many other clean energy technologies. In 2010, battery prices stood at around $1,220 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), and in 2021 this decreased nearly tenfold to $132 per kWh. Prices went up in 2022 for the first time in over a decade due to a supply crunch in necessary components, but have already begun to decline again in 2023.

Although the significance of these trends cannot be understated, batteries (and therefore EVs) remain expensive and are particularly unaffordable for emerging economies. The cost of the battery makes up 30-60% of the total cost of an EV, so battery cost declines will help make EVs more affordable relative to their fossil fuel-powered counterparts.

Photo credits

Photo by Ivan Radic

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