Overview
By 2050, the global population is projected to reach nearly 10 billion. Nutritiously feeding the world’s growing population in a changing climate — while also limiting warming and conserving biodiversity — will require drastic changes to the way food is produced and consumed.
New research from Systems Change Lab shows that recent progress in food and agriculture isn’t happening at the pace and scale necessary to secure healthy and sustainable food for all, with global efforts lagging on nearly every measure.
The findings assess 32 outcome indicators against key climate, biodiversity and equity targets, highlighting where action must urgently accelerate if the world is to equitably and nutritiously feed 10 billion people while limiting warming to 1.5°C and minimizing biodiversity losses:
- One indicator — dairy productivity — is “on track” to reach its 2030 target.
- One indicator — ruminant meat productivity — is “off track,” moving in the right direction at a promising but insufficient speed.
- Ten indicators are “well off track,” heading in the right direction but well below the required pace, including rice cultivation emissions intensity, pastureland area and the population unable to afford a healthy diet.
- Three indicators — irrigated agriculture water use efficiency, agricultural water stress and phosphorus use efficiency — are headed in the right direction but do not have quantitative targets.
- Nine indicators are headed in the wrong direction entirely, such that a U-turn in action is required, including share of food production lost, pesticide use intensity and hunger.
- Eight indicators have insufficient data to track progress.
The new research also includes more than 60 additional indicators that identify both enabling conditions that may help achieve short- and long-term targets, as well as critical barriers to transformational change.
- Key Findings
The importance of reducing emissions from food and agriculture cannot be overstated. One-third of global emissions come from the food system. Even if fossil fuel emissions are fully phased out, food-related emissions alone are projected to exceed the levels needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C unless significant changes are made to food production and consumption. To transform the global food system by 2050, we will need to simultaneously improve food production practices, reduce food loss and waste, and shift diets.
- Increase food production sustainably without expanding agricultural land
Farming productivity is heading in the right direction globally, with meat, dairy and crop yields increasing across the board. Critically, greenhouse gas emissions intensities are decreasing and thus also heading in the right direction. Yet this progress is not keeping pace with the continued growth in demand for food and has come at a high cost to the planet, contributing to rising total emissions, cropland expansion and increased pesticide use, among other environmental harms.
- Today, agriculture is the leading driver of biodiversity loss and deforestation, with agricultural expansion historically driving at least 90% of tropical deforestation and nearly 50% of mangrove losses.
- Farming practices need to make existing farmland more productive — especially in areas with low yields — without harming species and ecosystems. Curbing agricultural land expansion; closing yield gaps in low-productivity regions; and reducing the overuse of water, pesticides and fertilizers are needed to reduce deforestation and biodiversity loss.
- Although global crop yields increased by 28% between 2000 and 2023, they remained relatively flat over the most recent five years of data. Progress must accelerate 10x faster by 2030.
- Notably, as the global population grows and incomes rise, so will the global demand for meat and dairy. Producing more meat and milk with fewer animals helps minimize environmental impacts while satisfying growing global demand.
- Dairy productivity grew by 4% between 2018 and 2022, a pace on track to meet 2030 targets.
- Productivity for ruminant meat — that from cattle, sheep, goat and buffalo — grew by 6% between 2018 and 2022, and will need to accelerate by a factor of 1.1 to meet the 2030 target.
- Increasing productivity needs to be implemented carefully to avoid some of the negative impacts associated with intensification, including threats to farmer livelihoods, water quality, biodiversity and animal welfare.
- Improving access to credit, markets, electricity, mobile phones and other technologies, as well as veterinary and extension services can advance the adoption of climate-smart and sustainable production practices while supporting livelihoods, especially in developing countries.
- Reduce food loss and waste
One-third of all food produced around the world is never eaten — it’s lost or wasted along the way from farm to table. This not only squanders resources like water, land, and labor, but also fuels climate change by creating unnecessary emissions. Halving food loss and waste by 2030 will be essential to reducing the emissions and biodiversity loss linked to producing, transporting and discarding uneaten foods.
- Globally, about 13% of all food produced is lost, a rate that has remained consistent from 2016-2021. Reduction efforts are moving in the wrong direction and need to accelerate substantially to halve food loss to 6.5% by 2030.
- In 2022, UNEP estimated that approximately 19% of food available to buy was wasted, with the 60% occurring at the household level, 28% at the food service level and 12% at the retail level.
- Governments and companies are beginning to recognize their role in reducing food loss and waste. Twenty-three countries included measures to reduce food loss and waste in their nationally determined contributions as of March 2025, and the share of the 50 largest food and agriculture companies that have active food, loss and waste programs increased from 10% in 2017 to 58% in 2021.
- Adopt healthier, more sustainable diets
Dietary shifts are key to equitably feeding a growing global population, protecting biodiversity and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C. This means advancing global nutrition, improving food security in low-income and under-consuming populations, and moderating consumption of emissions- and land-intensive foods, like beef, in high-consuming regions.
- Global progress toward reducing food insecurity and hunger is moving in the wrong direction, with both remaining at the highest levels in nearly a decade: 29% of the global population faces food insecurity and 9% is chronically hungry. Drastic action is needed to reverse course while improving nutrition.
- Consumption of beef, lamb and goat in high-consuming regions — primarily in the Americas, Europe and Oceania — needs to decline 5x faster to help reduce agricultural land demand, methane emissions and the risk for diet-related diseases.
- Efforts to reduce the number of children affected by wasting and stunting are well off track, and need to accelerate more than 10x faster to eliminate childhood malnutrition by 2030.
- A growing number of countries are integrating sustainability considerations into food-based dietary guidelines that not only educate consumers but also inform the creation and implementation of other food and nutrition policies, such as school meal standards.
- Public investment in alternative proteins has been steadily increasing, growing from a cumulative global total of $17 million in 2017 to about 2.1 billion in 2024.
- These shifts cannot happen in isolation, but rather need to happen in parallel with transformations from other systems.
For example:
- As a result of sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and achieving dietary shifts, land that would have otherwise been used for agriculture could be restored to nature, benefiting biodiversity and the climate.
- Increasing energy efficiency and electricity decarbonization can reduce emissions from transportation of agricultural products and food processing and preparation.
- Additionally, optimizing water and fertilizer use efficiencies and improving the sustainability of aquaculture production can help protect freshwater and marine ecosystems.
Accelerating these shifts over the next three decades can help transform the global food system by 2050 to equitably and nutritiously feed 10 billion people with fewer GHG emissions and biodiversity losses.