Overview
By 2050, the global population is projected to reach nearly 10 billion. Nutritiously feeding the world’s growing population in a changing climate — while also limiting warming and conserving biodiversity — will require drastic changes to the way food is produced and consumed.
New research launched today shows that recent progress in food and agriculture isn’t happening at the pace and scale necessary to secure healthy and sustainable food for all, with global efforts lagging on nearly every measure.
The findings assess 32 outcome indicators against key climate, biodiversity and equity targets, highlighting where action must urgently accelerate if the world is to equitably and nutritiously feed 10 billion people while limiting warming to 1.5°C and minimizing biodiversity losses:
- One indicator — dairy productivity — is “on track” to reach its 2030 target.
- One indicator — ruminant meat productivity — is “off track,” moving in the right direction at a promising but insufficient speed.
- Ten indicators are “well off track,” heading in the right direction but well below the required pace, including rice cultivation emissions intensity, pastureland area and the population unable to afford a healthy diet.
- Three indicators — irrigated agriculture water use efficiency, agricultural water stress and phosphorus use efficiency — are headed in the right direction but do not have quantitative targets.
- Nine indicators are headed in the wrong direction entirely, such that a U-turn in action is required, including share of food production lost, pesticide use intensity and hunger.
- Eight indicators have insufficient data to track progress.
The new research also includes more than 60 additional indicators that identify both enabling conditions that may help achieve short- and long-term targets, as well as critical barriers to transformational change.
- Key Findings
The importance of reducing emissions from food and agriculture cannot be overstated. One-third of global emissions come from the food system. Even if fossil fuel emissions are fully phased out, food-related emissions alone are projected to exceed the levels needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C unless significant changes are made to food production and consumption. To transform the global food system by 2050, we will need to simultaneously improve food production practices, reduce food loss and waste, and shift diets.
- Increase food production sustainably without expanding agricultural land
Farming productivity is heading in the right direction globally, with meat, dairy and crop yields increasing across the board. Critically, greenhouse gas emissions intensities are decreasing and thus also heading in the right direction. Yet this progress is not keeping pace with the continued growth in demand for food and has come at a high cost to the planet, contributing to rising total emissions, cropland expansion and increased pesticide use, among other environmental harms.
- Reduce food loss and waste
One-third of all food produced around the world is never eaten — it’s lost or wasted along the way from farm to table. This not only squanders resources like water, land, and labor, but also fuels climate change by creating unnecessary emissions. Halving food loss and waste by 2030 will be essential to reducing the emissions and biodiversity loss linked to producing, transporting and discarding uneaten foods.
- Adopt healthier, more sustainable diets
Dietary shifts are key to equitably feeding a growing global population, protecting biodiversity and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C. This means advancing global nutrition, improving food security in low-income and under-consuming populations, and moderating consumption of emissions- and land-intensive foods, like beef, in high-consuming regions.
- These shifts cannot happen in isolation, but rather need to happen in parallel with transformations from other systems.
- As a result of sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and achieving dietary shifts, land that would have otherwise been used for agriculture could be restored to nature, benefiting biodiversity and the climate.
- Increasing energy efficiency and electricity decarbonization can reduce emissions from transportation of agricultural products and food processing and preparation.
- Additionally, optimizing water and fertilizer use efficiencies and improving the sustainability of aquaculture production can help protect freshwater and marine ecosystems.