Ruminant livestock such as cattle, sheep and goats are particularly resource-intensive commodities, requiring seven times as much land to produce as poultry and pork and 20 times more than beans per gram of protein. Pasture expansion for beef production, in particular, drives over 40% of tropical deforestation. At the same time, ruminant livestock production on rangelands that are not encroaching upon forests provides livelihoods to millions of pastoralists, produces high-quality protein and micronutrients, and uses arid lands that could not otherwise produce crops.
In addition to sustainably increasing ruminant meat productivity, moderating ruminant meat consumption in high-consuming regions will be essential for reducing agricultural land demand and reducing methane emissions while feeding more people. Reducing consumption of red meat, especially in processed forms, can also help reduce the risk for several diet-related diseases, including heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes and colorectal cancer.
Dietary shifts to reduce ruminant meat and increase plant-based food consumption are only relevant currently for high-consuming regions (primarily in the Americas, Europe and Oceania) where protein consumption is well above dietary requirements and alternative sources of protein are widely available and affordable. Our adaptation of FAOSTAT food availability data as a proxy for consumption indicates that, after declining from a peak of over 120 kilocalories (kcal) per day in the 1970s, per capita ruminant meat consumption across high-consuming regions fluctuated in the following decades. Ruminant meat consumption began a slightly downward trend in 2015, reaching 104 kcal per day in 2022. The average annual rate of change that occurred from 2018 to 2022 would need to accelerate by five times to achieve the 2030 target of being at or below 79 kcal per day. It would then need to continue to decline to reach the 2050 target of 60 kcal per day.
This weighted average tracks consumption in high-consuming regions only; in some regions with relatively low consumption up to now, rising consumption (especially among higher income and urban residents of those regions) will need to be moderated to stay under 60 kcal per day.