Heat pumps are among the most mature, and most popular, solutions for space heating and cooling (particularly in parts of the world that need heating), as well as for water heating. Generally, heat pumps can either be air-source, which exchange warm and cool air from the outside, or ground-source, which use shallow geothermal heat.
In 2020, there were about 177 million heat pumps installed around the world, with roughly 58 million in China, 40 million in North America, and 22 million in Europe. Crucially, heat pumps are powered by electricity, and increasing the number of installations will increase the use of electricity for heating.
It is fundamental that the power system meets its decarbonization targets so electrification in the end-use sectors, a key strategy for decreasing direct emissions, supports the transition toward decarbonization and does not contribute to increased emissions.
Currently, only 10% of heating needs are supplied by heat pumps, and this share needs to double by 2030; however, heat pump sales grew by 13% globally in 2021, with the greatest uptake in cold, northern climates (with a 40% increase in sales in Europe). To achieve a 1.5 degrees C pathway, 600 million heat pumps need to be installed cumulatively worldwide by 2030 and 1,800 million units by 2050. This would require the rate of installations to increase fourfold between 2021 and 2030.